GREENBRIAR Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$293,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,223 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Greenbriar is a thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home that blends comfort and functionality, making it an ideal choice for families of all sizes. From the moment you step inside, you're welcomed by an inviting layout that maximizes space. At the heart of the home, a well-appointed kitchen seamlessly flows into the spacious Great Room, creating the perfect setting for family gatherings or casual meals. Just beyond, large sliding doors lead to the outdoor patio, extending your living space. The Master Bedroom is thoughtfully tucked away at the rear of the home, offering a quiet and peaceful escape. With its en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, this space provides

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Walk in closet
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• HOME OFFICE
• HOBBY SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 17325 Whiskey Creek Trl, Parrish FL 34219
• Financial info: List price $293,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (GREENBRIAR)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,223

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (GREENBRIAR)

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,628.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $258,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,628
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17929 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+9%)	0mo	$314,000	$236	56
17917 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+9%)	1mo	$314,000	$236	56
17947 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+9%)	2mo	$329,000	$248	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,589
• Equity at exit: $43,035

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-64,493
• Equity at exit: $24,955

Cash invested: $80,816 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,642 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,329/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $288,628

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $192	+0% $92	+5% $-7	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-12	+0% $92	+5% $197	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $166	base $92	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,157
• Closing costs: $8,659
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
923 Hagle Park Rd Unit 925 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,175	$1.98	21d	1	1.27mi
1112 Hagle Park Rd Unit 1114 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,550	$1.91	17d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $293,990 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,990 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,990 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,990 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,990 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,990 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,990 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $293,990 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $293,990 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $293,990 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $293,990 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $293,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $293,990 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $293,990 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $293,990 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,168
• − Property taxes: −$4,329
• − Insurance: −$1,443
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,536
• − Management: −$2,536
• − Depreciation: −$8,396
• Taxable loss: −$3,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $1,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can prevent costly repairs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can prevent costly repairs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B