2851 Leonard Dr Unit J405 · Aventura, FL 33160

$245,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Condo public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1968

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated and fully remodeled. 1 bedroom, 1 bath residence featuring an open white kitchen with quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, including dishwasher. White porcelain tile flooring throughout. Spacious layout with two walk-in closets. New paint and hi hat lighting, new A/C and water heater. Enjoy serene lake views from this beautifully updated home. Residents can enjoy variety of amenities including a clubhouse, gym, billiards, bingo, bowling, card room, table tennis and 5 pools. The community also has a 2 mile walking path around the complex, perfect for leisurely strolls by the lake and bay. A courtesy bus provides convenient transportation to the mall, nearb

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Serene lake views
• Two walk-in closets

Tags

• OPEN WHITE KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHITE PORCELAIN TILE FLOORING
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SERENE LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with size limit up to 20 lbs
• Financial info: Association fee listed monthly
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association covers management, amenities, common areas, laundry, building maintenance, parking, pools, sewer, security, trash and water; Building amenities include billiard room, clubhouse, fitness center, laundry, library, pool, shuffleboard court, trails, transportation service and elevators; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Detached carport; One assigned space
• Security: Gated/complex fenced; On-site security guard
• Utilities: Water service included in association; Sewer included in association; Electric service
• Home design: Condominium in an 8-story building; Entry on level 4; Resale unit; Property attached
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Screened balcony; Heated pool; Lakefront; Has view; Complex fenced; Security guard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled unit; Bedroom on main level; Living/Dining room; Tub/shower; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.6% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1878 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,222/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $245k implies a 943% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.53% appreciation · 0.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,184
• Equity at exit: $77,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $22,098
• Equity at exit: $98,734

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33160

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1878
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$456
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,105

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $162	+0% $92	+5% $23	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-35	+0% $92	+5% $220	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $155	base $92	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-02-07
    listed $245,000 Active
16. 1976-02-01
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$6,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,093
• − Management: −$3,093
• − HOA: −$5,472
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$574
• After-tax cash flow: $1,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Aventura

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #1834

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aventura, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 34,147
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,718
• Household income: $67,040
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3106.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 27% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 8% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 8% Hispanic 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 61% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · Spanish 45% Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.53%
• Current HPI: 284.9293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.94%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+942.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $245,000 MARMLS
• 1976-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,204 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.