618 Amber Falls Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$299,600

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,536 sqft · Land · 109 Days on market

Built 2025 6,677 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Gustine floorplan by Centex—where space, style, and functionality meet! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features open-concept living with a spacious kitchen offering stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, gas cooking, a working island, and abundant cabinet space. Downstairs includes a large laundry room and a versatile flex space perfect for a home office, playroom, or schoolroom. The primary suite boasts a spa shower, an extended vanity, and our largest walk-in closet. Upstairs, enjoy a roomy game room and three additional bedrooms. Outside, relax on the covered patio overlooking a fenced, sodded yard with a sprinkler system and gutters. Community amenities inc

Key facts

• Gas cooking
• Spacious kitchen
• Working island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKING
• WORKING ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $1,000; Community features include a community pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025); Faces west; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2025; Stone and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Concrete road access; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Kitchen island (open workspace)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor; Bedroom sizes include 13x14 (primary), 12x10, 12x10, and 11x10; Total of 8 rooms (includes living and bonus/game spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (standard utility provisions)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-252/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $232,533 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,795
• Equity at exit: $44,671

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-77,902
• Equity at exit: $25,904

Cash invested: $83,888 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $295,891

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $64	+0% $-21	+5% $-106	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-113	+0% $-21	+5% $71	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $55	base $-21	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,900
• Closing costs: $8,988
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $299,600 Pending 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,600 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,600 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-05-22
   status Active
5. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-11
   price $299,600
7. 2026-02-20
   price $309,790
8. 2026-01-10
   price $323,280
9. 2026-01-10
   price $307,990
10. 2026-01-09
    listed $323,280 Active
11. 2026-01-09
    historical
12. 2025-11-11
    price $323,280
13. 2025-09-16
    price $328,060
14. 2025-09-16
    listed $339,180 Active
15. 2025-09-16
    historical
16. 2025-07-17
    price $328,060
17. 2025-07-09
    price $319,780
18. 2025-06-10
    listed $339,180 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,483 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,534/yr (+$378/mo · 478.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,782
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$8,716
• Taxable loss: −$5,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $1,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $299,600 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $309,790 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $323,280 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $323,280 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $323,280 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $328,060 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $339,180 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $328,060 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $319,780 HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $339,180 HARMLS