509 US 59 Hwy · Fairfax, MO 64446

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1969 0.26 ac lot $89/sqft · 7% above area Est $104k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with great potential and plenty of room to make it your own! Featuring updated windows and a solid layout, this property is perfect for someone looking to add their personal touch and bring it back to life. This home includes a partially finished basement that could easily be refreshed into additional living space, a rec room, or a home office. The metal roof is a great bonus, offering durability and low maintenance. Step outside to a large deck—perfect for grilling and entertaining—and a spacious yard that gives off a peaceful, country-like feel while still being conveniently located. There’s also a storage shed for all your tools. Whether you&

Key facts

• Large deck
• Spacious yard
• Metal roof

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE DECK
• SPACIOUS YARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a flood plain
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Raised ranch
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Has full basement with walk-out access; Estimated below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Corner lot inside city limits; Paved public road access; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Eat-in kitchen; Raised ranch floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#276 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairfax R-III (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #85 of 535 in MO (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Atchison County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,323
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -18.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $17,726
• Equity at exit: $38,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $52,609
• Equity at exit: $58,901

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64446

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $706

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $142	+0% $118	+5% $94	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $84	+0% $118	+5% $151	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $139	base $118	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $85,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-04-09
   listed $85,000 Active 927-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$821
• − Management: −$821
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $39
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax R-III
• NCES district ID: 2911760
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,901
• Composite: 46.28/100
• National rank: #5403
• State rank: #85 of 535 in MO

Livability — Fairfax

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #276
• US rank: #12908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfax, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,085

Population outlook (Atchison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,684 people
• By 2030: 4,353 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 3,768 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 3,299 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 2,495 · -46.7%
• By 2100: 1,835 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atchison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.8) · D 19.5% · R 79.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.4pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -59.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.8 2020: R+58.1 2016: R+55.8 2012: R+42.3 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $919 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.