315 Oakland Ave · Lorain, PA 15902

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1969 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bedroom Ranch being sold "as is"! Nice kitchen, 1st floor family rm.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Off street parking
• One floor living

Tags

• ONE FLOOR LIVING
• RANCH HOME
• OFF STREET PARKING
• LOCATED IN LORAIN BOROUGH
• FERNDALE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer / sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Shingle roof; One level
• Exterior features: Deck; Corner lot; Irregular-shaped lot; Public maintained road frontage on a city street; Satellite dish

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master Downstairs
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main floor; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,305 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ferndale Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #316 of 539 in PA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $80k implies a 1498% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
444 Green Valley St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-10%)	3mo	$38,500	$42	65
209 Dupont St	0.58mi	3/1.0	990 (-2%)	10mo	$47,000	$47	62
634 Russell Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	956 (-5%)	3mo	$51,000	$53	56
328 Ohio St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,130 (+12%)	14mo	$47,000	$42	52
298 Lunen St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	872 (-14%)	5mo	$25,000	$29	51
835 Freedom Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,108 (+10%)	2mo	$126,000	$114	50
608 Forest Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-11%)	8mo	$25,000	$28	45
210 Grove Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	948 (-6%)	19mo	$15,000	$16	44
217 Coldren St	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,098 (+9%)	8mo	$89,000	$81	42
609 Highland Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	6mo	$45,000	$50	40
805 Bay St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	8mo	$23,500	$27	34
645 Russell Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,107 (+10%)	21mo	$38,000	$34	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-4,735
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $6,663
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15902

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,731/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $150	+0% $128	+5% $105	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $89	+0% $128	+5% $167	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $148	base $128	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Heeney Ave Johnstown, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	5d	1	0.54mi
619 Grove Ave Johnstown, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	44d	1	0.77mi
906 Lemon St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$750	$0.66	44d	1	0.95mi
550 Ferndale Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	1.18mi
553 Vickroy Ave #555 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$985	$0.76	44d	1	1.21mi
522 Vickroy Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1125	$850	$0.76	44d	1	1.25mi
412 Oak St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	44d	1	1.35mi
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 191-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 158-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,731
• − Insurance: −$1,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$948
• − Management: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209750
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,748
• Composite: 36.12/100
• National rank: #4750
• State rank: #316 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lorain

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #16281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorain, PA
• County: Cambria County · 30,791 people
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,462
• Household income: $44,215
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 266.0

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Hungarian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.86%
• Current HPI: 108.2198
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+207.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $79,900 CSMLS
• 2018-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-25 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CSMLS
• 2002-03-11 Listed $29,000 CSMLS
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,900 Public Records
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,731 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.