4458 Rhine Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1966 7,744 sqft lot Est $208k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this amazing 3 bedroom, 2 bath ALL brick home with walkout basement in the highly sought after Seven Hills subdivision. Pristine move in ready home has been meticulously cared for and has tremendous curb appeal. Features and updates include: beautiful hardwood floors, custom patio doors, paver patio with drainage system, landscaping walls, porch columns, newer HVAC, siding, windows, some new electric and renovated hall bath. Spacious lower level has laundry area, 2 large bonus rooms, plenty of room for storage and is waiting on your finishing touches. Enjoy a nice sized paver patio and large backyard perfect for entertaining in the upcoming spring months. Home is being sold as is, seller to do no inspections or repairs. Schedule your appointment TODAY!

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• Newer hvac system
• 7,744 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FULL WALKOUT BASEMENT
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered; Home warranty included

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2-car; garage size approx. 420); Total of 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water and public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; electricity, natural gas, sewer and water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property type
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop, built-in electric oven, dishwasher, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms all on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning and ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric cooktop, built-in electric oven, dishwasher, refrigerator; Fireplace in the family room; Basement with exterior and interior entry, walk-out access, unfinished space and a sleeping area
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer utilities connected (water, sewer, electric, natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($403/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,730 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,244
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4394 Satiris Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-1%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	89
4451 Rhine Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+8%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	85
11678 Galba Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-2%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	82
4443 Remus Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,354 (+3%)	3mo	$224,900	$166	82
11565 Mehl Ave	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (-4%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	81
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,271 (-4%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	78
4384 Remus Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-14%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	70
11962 Nero Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$153	68
4377 Varano Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-12%)	2mo	$150,000	$130	63
29 Brixworth Ct	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,280 (-3%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	60
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,124 (-15%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	57
12415 Danube Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,124 (-15%)	6mo	$150,000	$133	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $119,199
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.60×
• Total profit: $369,246
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,393/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,685

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $90	+0% $34	+5% $-23	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-35	+0% $34	+5% $102	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $84	base $34	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.31mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.42mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	0.52mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	0.79mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	0.85mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.10mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.27mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	1.27mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	24d	1	1.31mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	8d	1	1.38mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	24d	1	1.43mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 669-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,393 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,393 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,393
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+176.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-01 Listed $164,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-30 Coming Soon $164,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,393 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.