1370 Toolik Dr · Badger, AK 99705

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1983 0.94 ac lot Est $390k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1370 Toolik Drive. This well-maintained ranch home has everything you can need. This home boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big two-car garage. There is even a bonus room that can be used perfectly as an office or craft room! Sitting on almost an acre with a private estate experience you are sure to have enough room to do anything your heart desires. Outback you can envision enjoying the huge deck for those BBQs, having fun with family, or watching the Northern Lights dance across the sky! This home is centrally located with a 10-minute drive to Fort Wainwright and a 15-minute drive to Eielson AFB, perfect for any commute. This home has so much to offer so schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Cozy wood stove
• Bonus room

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• BONUS ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-772/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ticasuk Brown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #128 of 156 statewide, top 86%, 397 students, 41% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $259,363 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,048
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1313 Toolik Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	9mo	$409,900	$259	77
1968 Travis Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-4%)	12mo	$374,900	$239	74
1401 Scougal Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+3%)	10mo	$289,900	$173	66
1943 Tunnels Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-4%)	11mo	$349,900	$223	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,936
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-23,119
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,641/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $293,640

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   historical
3. 2026-02-26
   status Active
4. 2026-02-26
   price $305,000
5. 2026-02-26
   status Active
6. 2026-02-26
   price $305,000
7. 2026-02-18
   historical
8. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-25
   price $334,900
10. 2025-11-25
    price $334,900
11. 2025-10-14
    price $337,900
12. 2025-10-14
    price $337,900
13. 2025-10-02
    price $340,000
14. 2025-10-02
    price $340,000
15. 2025-08-27
    price $345,000
16. 2025-08-27
    price $345,000
17. 2025-08-06
    listed $350,000 Active
18. 2025-08-06
    listed $350,000 Active
19. 2022-01-13
    soldstatus 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Welcome to 1370 Toolik Drive. This well-maintained ranch home has everything you can need. This home boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big two-car garage. There is even a bonus room that can be used perfectly as an office or craft room! Sitting on almost an acre with a private estate experience you are sure to have enough room to do anything your heart desires. Outback you can envision enjoying the huge deck for those BBQs, having fun with family, or watching the Northern Lights dance across the sky! This home is centrally located with a 10-minute drive to Fort Wainwright and a 15-minute drive to Eielson AFB, perfect for any commute. This home has so much to offer so schedule your showing today!

20. 2022-01-13
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Welcome to 1370 Toolik Drive. This well-maintained ranch home has everything you can need. This home boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big two-car garage. There is even a bonus room that can be used perfectly as an office or craft room! Sitting on almost an acre with a private estate experience you are sure to have enough room to do anything your heart desires. Outback you can envision enjoying the huge deck for those BBQs, having fun with family, or watching the Northern Lights dance across the sky! This home is centrally located with a 10-minute drive to Fort Wainwright and a 15-minute drive to Eielson AFB, perfect for any commute. This home has so much to offer so schedule your showing today!

21. 2021-09-27
    status Pending
22. 2021-09-22
    price $284,400
23. 2021-08-16
    price $284,900
24. 2021-07-26
    listed $284,400 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Welcome to 1370 Toolik Drive. This well-maintained ranch home has everything you can need. This home boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big two-car garage. There is even a bonus room that can be used perfectly as an office or craft room! Sitting on almost an acre with a private estate experience you are sure to have enough room to do anything your heart desires. Outback you can envision enjoying the huge deck for those BBQs, having fun with family, or watching the Northern Lights dance across the sky! This home is centrally located with a 10-minute drive to Fort Wainwright and a 15-minute drive to Eielson AFB, perfect for any commute. This home has so much to offer so schedule your showing today!

25. 2021-07-26
    listed $289,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Welcome to 1370 Toolik Drive. This well-maintained ranch home has everything you can need. This home boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big two-car garage. There is even a bonus room that can be used perfectly as an office or craft room! Sitting on almost an acre with a private estate experience you are sure to have enough room to do anything your heart desires. Outback you can envision enjoying the huge deck for those BBQs, having fun with family, or watching the Northern Lights dance across the sky! This home is centrally located with a 10-minute drive to Fort Wainwright and a 15-minute drive to Eielson AFB, perfect for any commute. This home has so much to offer so schedule your showing today!

26. 2018-08-09
    soldstatus
27. 2010-03-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,641 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,641 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,641
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,490
• − Management: −$2,490
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$5,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+7.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-03-04 Delisted — GFBR
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — GFBR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $305,000 GFBR
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $305,000 AKMLS
• 2026-02-18 Delisted — GFBR
• 2026-02-18 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $334,900 GFBR
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $334,900 AKMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $337,900 GFBR
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $337,900 AKMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $340,000 GFBR
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $340,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $345,000 GFBR
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $345,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $350,000 GFBR
• 2025-08-06 Listed $350,000 AKMLS
• 2022-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-13 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2021-09-27 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-09-22 Price Changed $284,400 AKMLS
• 2021-08-16 Price Changed $284,900 AKMLS
• 2021-07-26 Listed $289,900 AKMLS
• 2021-07-26 Listed $284,400 GFBR
• 2018-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,641 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.