11220 S Lake Rd · Pavilion, NY 14525

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1970 0.41 ac lot Est $192k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can own this affordable cozy 3 bedroom ranch! Convenient location with a quick drive to NYS Thruway, Geneseo or Batavia. Spacious heated garage w/ 200 amp electric service for what every your next project may be! Fresh interior paint. Concrete kitchen counters with glass tile backsplash - Appliances included! Heated Mudroom/Laundry Room with walk out to back deck and . 48 acre lot! (114 Sq Ft addition not represented in tax records - total Sq Ft 954)

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Gas heater
• One floor living

Tags

• ONE FLOOR LIVING
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED RUSTIC LAUNDRY
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• GAS HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pavilion Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #271 of 590 in NY (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $98,882 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.11%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,754
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11220 S Lake Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	954 (0%)	1mo	$162,000	$170	99
6973 Big Tree Rd	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	971 (+2%)	20mo	$195,000	$201	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $61,516
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $193,006
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14525

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,945/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $98,882

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2022-01-04
   soldstatus $105,000
4. 2021-12-30
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed Sale or Rented 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   Why rent when you can own this affordable cozy 3 bedroom ranch! Convenient location with a quick drive to NYS Thruway, Geneseo or Batavia. Spacious heated garage w/ 200 amp electric service for what every your next project may be! Fresh interior paint. Concrete kitchen counters with glass tile backsplash - Appliances included! Heated Mudroom/Laundry Room with walk out to back deck and . 48 acre lot! (114 Sq Ft addition not represented in tax records - total Sq Ft 954)

5. 2021-10-12
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   Why rent when you can own this affordable cozy 3 bedroom ranch! Convenient location with a quick drive to NYS Thruway, Geneseo or Batavia. Spacious heated garage w/ 200 amp electric service for what every your next project may be! Fresh interior paint. Concrete kitchen counters with glass tile backsplash - Appliances included! Heated Mudroom/Laundry Room with walk out to back deck and . 48 acre lot! (114 Sq Ft addition not represented in tax records - total Sq Ft 954)

6. 2021-10-08
   listed $104,000 Active 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   Why rent when you can own this affordable cozy 3 bedroom ranch! Convenient location with a quick drive to NYS Thruway, Geneseo or Batavia. Spacious heated garage w/ 200 amp electric service for what every your next project may be! Fresh interior paint. Concrete kitchen counters with glass tile backsplash - Appliances included! Heated Mudroom/Laundry Room with walk out to back deck and . 48 acre lot! (114 Sq Ft addition not represented in tax records - total Sq Ft 954)

7. 2002-09-27
   soldstatus $46,377
8. 1996-09-27
   soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,945 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,945 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,945
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$5,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pavilion Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622500
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $61,117
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2028
• State rank: #271 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pavilion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pavilion, NY
• City population: 2,532
• Population (ZIP): 2,532

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 238.2692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+185.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-30 Sold (MLS) $105,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $104,000 WNYREIS
• 2002-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,377 Public Records
• 1996-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,945 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.