2099 Branch Creek Dr · Byram, MS 39272

$177,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2005 0.32 ac lot Est $216k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this amazing 3 bed 2 bath split plan home that qualifies USDA $0 DOWN. This home offers a spacious living room, high ceilings, an open kitchen dining room combo, tons of cabinet space, a master suite that can hold a king size bed plus tray ceiling, two master walk in closets, double vanity, walk in shower, and jetted tub. Schedule your appointment TODAY!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Kitchen
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Fireplace(s) and forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($645/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Byram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hinds County School District (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #70 of 130 in MS (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gary Road Elementary (672 students, 100% FRL); Byram Middle School (math 29% / reading 29%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 772 students, 100% FRL); Terry High School (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #128 of 197 statewide, top 65%, 1,098 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,015 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,081
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Ridge Pl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+0%)	2mo	$219,000	$153	95
2087 Branch Creek Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	8mo	$219,000	$151	89
909 Eagles Nest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+5%)	6mo	$215,000	$143	81
799 Highpoint Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+5%)	4mo	$230,000	$153	78
38 Stacy Cv	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-0%)	6mo	$189,900	$133	76
505 Golden Eagle Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+11%)	8mo	$222,000	$140	68
2043 Branch Creek Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	9mo	$205,000	$156	68
213 Austin Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+6%)	1mo	$229,900	$152	65
85 Susan Cv	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+12%)	3mo	$229,000	$143	55
1934 Christine Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-14%)	8mo	$170,000	$138	55
59 Tyler Cv	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-13%)	8mo	$180,000	$144	53
1111 Bullrun Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-12%)	0mo	$189,500	$151	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-25,235
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,478
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39272

• Home prices YoY: -9.8%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $104	+0% $54	+5% $4	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-10	+0% $54	+5% $117	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $99	base $54	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2111 Branch Creek Dr Byram, MS	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,700	$1.17	15d	1	0.07mi
1213 Lake Shore Dr Byram, MS	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,000	$0.74	25d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $177,000 Active
3. 2023-08-31
   soldstatus Closed 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Welcome to this amazing 3 bed 2 bath split plan home that qualifies USDA $0 DOWN. This home offers a spacious living room, high ceilings, an open kitchen dining room combo, tons of cabinet space, a master suite that can hold a king size bed plus tray ceiling, two master walk in closets, double vanity, walk in shower, and jetted tub. Schedule your appointment TODAY!

4. 2023-08-31
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Welcome to this amazing 3 bed 2 bath split plan home that qualifies USDA $0 DOWN. This home offers a spacious living room, high ceilings, an open kitchen dining room combo, tons of cabinet space, a master suite that can hold a king size bed plus tray ceiling, two master walk in closets, double vanity, walk in shower, and jetted tub. Schedule your appointment TODAY!

5. 2023-07-23
   status Pending 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Welcome to this amazing 3 bed 2 bath split plan home that qualifies USDA $0 DOWN. This home offers a spacious living room, high ceilings, an open kitchen dining room combo, tons of cabinet space, a master suite that can hold a king size bed plus tray ceiling, two master walk in closets, double vanity, walk in shower, and jetted tub. Schedule your appointment TODAY!

6. 2023-07-19
   listed $199,500 Active 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Welcome to this amazing 3 bed 2 bath split plan home that qualifies USDA $0 DOWN. This home offers a spacious living room, high ceilings, an open kitchen dining room combo, tons of cabinet space, a master suite that can hold a king size bed plus tray ceiling, two master walk in closets, double vanity, walk in shower, and jetted tub. Schedule your appointment TODAY!

7. 2018-10-29
   soldstatus 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home in the awesome neighborhood of Branch Creek. This home has Gorgeous scored floors. Huge Living room with trey ceilings. Eat in Kitchen. Huge master bedroom with master bath with his and hers closets. Separate shower and tub. This one will not last long.

8. 2018-10-29
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home in the awesome neighborhood of Branch Creek. This home has Gorgeous scored floors. Huge Living room with trey ceilings. Eat in Kitchen. Huge master bedroom with master bath with his and hers closets. Separate shower and tub. This one will not last long.

9. 2018-07-13
   listed $143,000 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home in the awesome neighborhood of Branch Creek. This home has Gorgeous scored floors. Huge Living room with trey ceilings. Eat in Kitchen. Huge master bedroom with master bath with his and hers closets. Separate shower and tub. This one will not last long.

10. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus
11. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus
12. 2016-06-26
    listed $135,000
13. 2013-08-29
    soldstatus
14. 2013-08-29
    soldstatus
15. 2013-07-08
    listed $99,900
16. 2005-06-29
    soldstatus
17. 2005-06-29
    soldstatus
18. 2005-06-22
    listed $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$2,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$555
• After-tax cash flow: $1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hinds County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801860
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,335
• Composite: 24.02/100
• National rank: #7771
• State rank: #70 of 130 in MS

Livability — Byram

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #8178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Byram, MS
• City population: 14,161
• Population (ZIP): 14,161

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 22% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.11%
• Current HPI: 184.3215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+38.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-21 Listed $177,000 MLSU
• 2023-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-07-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-07-19 Listed $199,500 MLSU
• 2018-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-07-13 Listed $143,000 MLSU
• 2016-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-06-26 Listed $135,000 MLSU
• 2013-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-07-08 Listed $99,900 MLSU
• 2005-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-06-22 Listed $128,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,595 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.