4140 Lockhart Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1959 Est $115k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD OWNED/SUBJECT TO HUD RULES. SEE WWW.FIRSTPRESTON.COM FOR REGS. LIENS/CODE VIOLATIONS MAY EXIST. BUYER/BROKER TO RESOLVE. SOLD AS IS. PARTICIPATING BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5%. SEE WEB SITE. NOT FHA ELIGIBLE HUD CASE 091-252710 USE HUD MASTER KEY TO SHOW CALL LISTING AGENT FOR ASSISTANCE

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Spacious addition
• Built 1959

Tags

• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• MAJOR INTERSTATE ROUTES
• SPACIOUS ADDITION
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Exterior features: No private pool; Residential use

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,317/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.40%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5846 Abelia Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,058 (+4%)	2mo	$60,000	$57	71
4105 Katanga Dr N	0.06mi	3/1.0	874 (-14%)	1mo	$122,500	$140	69
6601 Cleveland Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0	896 (-12%)	2mo	$82,500	$92	65
4266 Carroll Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,101 (+8%)	4mo	$130,000	$118	64
4225 Homer Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	924 (-9%)	1mo	$104,150	$113	63
6645 Cleveland Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	888 (-13%)	6mo	$105,000	$118	58
6151 Ardisia Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	892 (-12%)	2mo	$128,000	$143	57
5638 Vernon Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	963 (-5%)	2mo	$99,000	$103	54
2548 Wisteria St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+6%)	8mo	$45,000	$42	50
7203 Ken Knight Dr E	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	3mo	$38,000	$40	46
7142 Ken Knight Dr E	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	6mo	$85,000	$89	44
3181 Brasque Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+12%)	2mo	$182,900	$160	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $4,842
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $26,164
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,936/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4144 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	23d	1	0.08mi
6601 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	23d	1	0.19mi
4294 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	23d	1	0.19mi
4236 Homer Rd N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	11d	1	0.32mi
3997 Leonnie Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	7d	1	0.42mi
5838 Abelia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,150	$1.01	23d	1	0.42mi
4211 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	23d	1	0.43mi
6188 Pettiford Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,850	$1.23	12d	1	0.44mi
4253 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$975	$1.16	23d	1	0.48mi
2904 Lippia Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	23d	1	0.49mi
5814 Begonia Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,655	$1.10	23d	1	0.50mi
5821 Begonia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,155	$0.94	4d	1	0.52mi
4177 Lorenzo Ct Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	1d	1	0.53mi
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	7d	1	0.62mi
6731 W Virginia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1188	$1,225	$1.03	21d	1	0.64mi
4910 Rhode Island Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,696	$1.30	23d	1	0.67mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	14d	1	0.73mi
5565 Minosa Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	4d	1	0.81mi
6114 Strawflower Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,200	$1.17	23d	1	0.83mi
5428 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	23d	1	0.86mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	17d	1	0.87mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	17d	1	0.87mi
5531 Agra Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	14d	1	0.87mi
5326 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.95mi
5217 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	7d	1	1.00mi
2818 Palmdale St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1484	$1,900	$1.28	23d	1	1.00mi
2151 Wilberforce Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,249	$1.07	23d	1	1.04mi
5227 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,450	$1.24	23d	1	1.05mi
8509 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,675	$1.12	23d	1	1.06mi
8534 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1410	$1,995	$1.41	23d	1	1.10mi
8516 Bermuda Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,625	$1.09	20d	1	1.11mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 21 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	1.13mi
2092 Benedict Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	816	$1,095	$1.34	23d	1	1.14mi
5035 Campenella Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	23d	1	1.16mi
2268 W 44th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,440	$1.34	4d	1	1.16mi
6705 Gaspar Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,254	$1.12	17d	1	1.21mi
2108 Talladega Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,579	$1.36	4d	1	1.22mi
8645 Samona Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	23d	1	1.23mi
2534 Aubrey Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	759	$1,250	$1.65	23d	1	1.24mi
5306 Paris Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,150	$1.22	23d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $95,000 Pending 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-05-18
   price $95,000
9. 2026-03-31
   listed $100,000 Active
10. 2002-10-04
    soldstatus $72,000
11. 2002-08-26
    soldstatus $42,300
12. 2002-06-14
    soldstatus $37,723 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    HUD OWNED/SUBJECT TO HUD RULES. SEE WWW.FIRSTPRESTON.COM FOR REGS. LIENS/CODE VIOLATIONS MAY EXIST. BUYER/BROKER TO RESOLVE. SOLD AS IS. PARTICIPATING BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5%. SEE WEB SITE. NOT FHA ELIGIBLE HUD CASE 091-252710 USE HUD MASTER KEY TO SHOW CALL LISTING AGENT FOR ASSISTANCE

13. 2002-04-25
    listed $36,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    HUD OWNED/SUBJECT TO HUD RULES. SEE WWW.FIRSTPRESTON.COM FOR REGS. LIENS/CODE VIOLATIONS MAY EXIST. BUYER/BROKER TO RESOLVE. SOLD AS IS. PARTICIPATING BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5%. SEE WEB SITE. NOT FHA ELIGIBLE HUD CASE 091-252710 USE HUD MASTER KEY TO SHOW CALL LISTING AGENT FOR ASSISTANCE

14. 1992-09-01
    soldstatus $14,000
15. 1982-05-01
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,936
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,781
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$667
• After-tax cash flow: $3,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+341.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $95,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $100,000 realMLS
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $42,300 Public Records
• 2002-06-14 Sold (MLS) $37,723 realMLS
• 2002-04-25 Listed $36,000 realMLS
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1982-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,936 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.