45251 Tule Fire Rd · Anza, CA 92539

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 10 ac lot Est $373k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the freedom and tranquility of owning 10 acres of flat, usable land—perfect for farming, horses, recreation, or building your dream setup. This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers: Two private wells for reliable water access, Expansive flat terrain ideal for gardening, livestock, or future development, Secluded location with plenty of privacy and open space Endless possibilities—create a homestead, workshop, or income-generating property Whether you're looking to escape the city or invest in land with potential, this property is a rare find.

Key facts

• Open space
• Two private wells
• Secluded location

Tags

• 10 ACRES OF FLAT LAND
• TWO PRIVATE WELLS
• EXPANSIVE FLAT TERRAIN
• SECLUDED LOCATION
• PLENTY OF PRIVACY
• OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Anza — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,301 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,122 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44861 Thunder	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	20mo	$337,000	$259	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $128,686
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $374,090
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92539

• Home prices YoY: 16.5%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,527/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2026-03-20
   historical
4. 2026-01-07
   price $210,000
5. 2025-09-15
   listed $265,000 Active
6. 2014-04-21
   soldstatus $160,000
7. 1996-12-24
   soldstatus $18,000
8. 1981-11-01
   soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,527
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $1,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Anza

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1301
• US rank: #26600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,480

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 16% Asian 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.58%
• Current HPI: 329.4083
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+212.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $225,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $210,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $265,000 SDMLS
• 2014-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1981-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,527 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.