642 Nobles St · Sebastian, FL 32958

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1987 10,019 sqft lot Est $394k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome To This 2-Bed/2-Bath Home W/ 2-Car Garage Located In The Sought-After Sebastian! This Home Features Soaring Vaulted Ceilings With Abundance Of Natural Light. Spacious Living & Dining Area Is Anchored By A Stunning Natural Stone Fireplace. Large Open And Bright Eat-In Kitchen With A Breakfast Nook, Lots Of Cabinets And Storage, Large Pantry, And Newer Whirlpool White Appliances. Primary Bedroom Offers A Ceiling Fan, Spacious Walk-In Closet, & Views Of The Backyard. Primary Bathroom Showcases A Neutral Tiled Shower & Large Vanity. Second Bedroom Is Equally Comfortable, Featuring A Ceiling Fan, Large Closet, & A Bonus Newer Additional A/C For Personalized Climate

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Eat-in kitchen
• Large pantry

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL STONE FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LARGE PANTRY
• UPDATED PLUMBING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with automatic door opener
• Security: Storm/security shutters
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Northeast facing
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Screened porch; Patio; Room for pool; Fence; Shed(s); Storm/security shutters; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Vaulted ceilings; Living/dining room; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Shower-only bath; Walk-in closet(s); Attic access; Workshop area; Blinds and drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Sebastian — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,018 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $393,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 S Wimbrow Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,469 (-10%)	4mo	$390,000	$265	76
450 Columbus St E	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,640 (-0%)	8mo	$219,000	$134	68
76 White Pelican Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,663 (+1%)	2mo	$403,742	$243	68
53 White Pelican Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (+3%)	2mo	$404,048	$240	65
443 Azine Ter	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (-7%)	1mo	$297,500	$195	60
472 Arbor St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (-12%)	2mo	$352,000	$244	55
431 Azine Ter	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+9%)	10mo	$420,000	$235	49
441 Columbus St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (-14%)	4mo	$250,000	$176	45
208 Chello Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,883 (+15%)	9mo	$680,000	$361	44
405 Columbus St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-10%)	8mo	$335,000	$227	43
402 Toledo St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+11%)	3mo	$370,000	$203	42
834 George St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (+8%)	11mo	$475,000	$268	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-55,878
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,172
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32958

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,037/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $222,018

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-144	-5% $-222	+0% $-300	+5% $-378	+10% $-456
Rent	-10% $-480	-5% $-390	+0% $-300	+5% $-210	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-230	base $-300	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
246 S Wimbrow Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$3,000	$2.20	13d	1	0.25mi
243 Harp Ter Unit A Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,885	$1.64	21d	1	0.39mi
351 Del Monte Rd Unit B Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	13d	1	0.45mi
351 Del Monte Rd Unit B Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	21d	1	0.45mi
393 S Wimbrow Dr Apt A Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	21d	1	0.63mi
832 Carnation Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,800	$2.00	13d	1	0.81mi
834 Dolores St Sebastian, FL	3.0	1.0	1253	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	0.94mi
6124 River Run Dr Unit B Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,200	$1.71	21d	1	1.05mi
462 Lloyd St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,400	$1.53	21d	1	1.09mi
422 Avocado Ave Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$3,900	$2.30	21d	1	1.12mi
6240 E Mirror Lake Dr Unit 201 Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	21d	1	1.24mi
426 Tulip Dr Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1161	$2,100	$1.81	21d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 683-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,037 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,037 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,037
• − Insurance: −$2,878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,999
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebastian

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1421

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sebastian, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• City population: 30,023
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,023
• Household income: $66,840
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 646.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.85%
• Current HPI: 330.1691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.22%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $275,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+20.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,037 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.