613 Shell Ave · Cleveland, TX 77327

$119,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1985 7,858 sqft lot $108/sqft · 27% below area Est $163k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED this FIXER UPPER! If you are willing to do some repairs this might be just what you are looking for. This home in the Liberty County area is being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. The seller will replace the roof, but the rest is up to you. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 7,858 sq ft lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 285 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.39%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,494
• List price: $119,999
• Delta: -26.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1107 Lyle St W	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+6%)	0mo	$234,500	$199	72
1000 Crescent Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+2%)	2mo	$159,000	$140	64
1305 E Hanson St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,186 (+6%)	22mo	$175,000	$148	63
803 Hays St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+8%)	6mo	$125,000	$104	60
218 N Franklin Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-5%)	3mo	$165,000	$155	52
1204 S Holly Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-7%)	5mo	$145,000	$139	51
1302 Shell Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+10%)	12mo	$200,000	$163	50
404 S Manthey Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+15%)	17mo	$215,500	$168	43
1000 Daniel St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-6%)	18mo	$154,900	$147	43
1304 S Holly Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,196 (+7%)	14mo	$175,000	$146	42
118 Taft Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,052 (-6%)	20mo	$160,000	$152	34
1307 Denison Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	988 (-11%)	20mo	$148,500	$150	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,020
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $42,633
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $119,999

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $409	+0% $375	+5% $341	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $314	+0% $375	+5% $436	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $405	base $375	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	0d	1	0.14mi
307 Sleepy Hollow Dr Cleveland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,440	$1.95	0d	4	0.40mi
309 Johnson ST Unit J Cleveland, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,350	$1.00	8d	1	0.80mi
511 S Roosevelt Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	45d	1	0.82mi
201 Pine Bend Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.84mi
1301 Nevell St Cleveland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,442	$1.74	0d	5	1.01mi
1018 Green Ave Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,500	$1.12	23d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,999 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,999 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,999 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,999 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,999 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,999 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,999 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,999 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,999 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,999 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,999 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,999 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,999 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,999 Active 265 DOM
15. 2025-09-08
    listed $119,999 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    JUST LISTED this FIXER UPPER! If you are willing to do some repairs this might be just what you are looking for. This home in the Liberty County area is being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. The seller will replace the roof, but the rest is up to you. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$300/yr (+$25/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$662
• After-tax cash flow: $3,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-08 Listed $119,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · -37.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.