167 Overlook Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,499 – $2,785
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 3/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 5.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +4.8/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Schools +2.0/10.0
$129,900
167 Overlook Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 103 Days on market
Built 1972
0.25 ac lot
$120/sqft
· 24% below area
Est $170k · 24% under
$112/mo HOA · 6% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Nice, private area of Fairfield Bay, yet convenient to both downtown Fairfield Bay and the New Road to go to Clinton. This home is in a great neighborhood just down the street from much higher priced lakeview homes. Cute little open concept home close to the lake. Much remodelling done and ready to move into. Seller is offering a $500 carpet allowance to replace the bedroom carpets. The very nice, almost new furniture in the house is negotiable. Definitely one you will want to see. * * Note: Home is on septic system, making the Fairfield Bay dues cheaper. Also, Fairfield Bay dues will drop to $86.
Key facts
- Open floor plan
- Newer roof
- Spacious deck
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
- Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.1% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: 319 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $279 of equity ($898 loan paydown + $-619 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
- Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$118,209
(9.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.54% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.47%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.07%
- DSCR
- 1.98
- GRM
- 5.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $169,978
- List price
- $129,900
- Delta
- -23.58%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220 Lookout Dr | 0.08mi | 2/1.0 | 1,080 (0%) | 22mo | $160,000 | $148 | 74 |
| 169 Lynn Creek Dr | 0.25mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 1,116 (+3%) | 3mo | $225,000 | $202 | 72 |
| 150 Lookout Dr | 0.37mi | 2/2.0 | 1,025 (-5%) | 13mo | $135,000 | $132 | 64 |
| 215 Greenwood | 0.62mi | 2/1.5 | 1,104 (+2%) | 6mo | $115,000 | $104 | 60 |
| 102 Tee Pee Trail Cor | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,132 (+5%) | 11mo | $225,000 | $199 | 60 |
| 103 Lakewood Rd | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,116 (+3%) | 16mo | $165,000 | $148 | 54 |
| 309 Timber Rd Rd | 0.21mi | 2/2.0 | 1,232 (+14%) | 17mo | $158,000 | $128 | 53 |
| 109 Lakewood Rd | 0.61mi | 2/2.0 | 936 (-13%) | 11mo | $150,000 | $160 | 40 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 21.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.99×
- Total profit
- $35,965
- Equity at exit
- $34,654
10-year hold
- IRR
- 25.8%
- Equity multiple
- 3.75×
- Total profit
- $100,195
- Equity at exit
- $39,283
Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arkansas
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 3 active · 3 under contract
- Months of supply
- 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $150,000 ($139/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 78 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +13.4% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 72088
- Home prices YoY
- -0.2%
- Active inventory
- 319
- Price-to-rent
- 5.4×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,000 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$681
- Tax from tax record
- −$64 /mo · $764/yr
- Insurance
- −$54
- HOA
- −$112
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$420
- Net cashflow
- $669
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,153
Max offer price
$129,900
Occupancy floor
62%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $743 | -5% $706 | +0% $669 | +5% $632 | +10% $595 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $511 | -5% $590 | +0% $669 | +5% $748 | +10% $827 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $734 | -0.5pp $702 | base $669 | +0.5pp $635 | +1.0pp $601 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $32,475
- Closing costs
- $3,897
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $2,000 | $1.54 | 93d | 1 | 1.28mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Property has lake access (Greers Ferry / Indian Hills golf course nearby)
- Financial info
- Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, Rural Development
- HOA & community
- Monthly association fee covering garbage and private roads (approx. $112.85/month)Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis courts, sauna, playground, picnic area, marina, hot tub, golf course, fitness/bike trailMandatory fee
Exterior
- Parking
- Carport
- Utilities
- SepticElectric (Co-Op)Propane/butane gasInternet (Fiber)Insulated windows and doors
- Home design
- Rock & frame and Masonite exterior
- Construction
- Crawl space foundationArchitectural shingle roof
- Exterior features
- DeckPorchSloped and level lot in a subdivisionRiver/lake areaInside city limitsPaved road
Interior
- Kitchen
- Free-standing stoveElectric rangeDishwasherRefrigerator stays
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central cooling (electric)Central electric heatHeat pump
- Interior features
- Ceiling fan(s)Walk-in showerBreakfast barKit counter (Formica)Washer connection; washer staysDryer connection (electric); dryer staysElectric water heater
- Laundry & utility
- Washer staysDryer staysWasher and dryer connections
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $129,900 Active 102 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $129,900 Active 101 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $129,900 Active 100 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $129,900 Active 99 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $129,900 Active 98 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $129,900 Active 95 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $129,900 Active 94 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $129,900 Active 93 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $129,900 Active 88 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $129,900 Active 87 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $129,900 Active 86 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
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2026-07-15days on market $129,900 Active 79 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $129,900 Active 78 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $129,900 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $129,900 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $129,900 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $129,900 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $129,900 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $129,900 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $129,900 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-27statusdays on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $129,900 Price Change 59 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $129,900 Price Change 56 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $129,900 Price Change 55 DOM
-
2026-06-19pricestatusdays on market $129,900 Price Change 53 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $764 · $64/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $831 · $69/mo
- Expected delta
- +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 8.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,000
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,276
- − Property taxes
- −$764
- − Insurance
- −$650
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,920
- − Management
- −$1,920
- − HOA
- −$1,344
- − Depreciation
- −$3,779
- Taxable income
- $6,347
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,523
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,505/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
45/100
Moderate rehab
Est. rehab $27,000–$48,600 screening
This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.
Components & finishes AI
Roof asphalt shingle · good
Flooring wood
Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening
- Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear
Repairs flagged
- Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
- Minor Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting and repainting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
- Both HVAC system maintenance — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Shirley Elementary School
F
AR #419/454
Nat'l #38,100/41,679
High
Shirley High School
F
AR #164/292
Nat'l #11,887/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Shirley School District
- NCES district ID
- 0512420
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▲ 4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 42% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $36,296
- Composite
- 37.98/100
- National rank
- #8669
- State rank
- #132 of 245 in AR
C
Composite livability gradescore 62/100
Livability — Fairfield Bay
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #220
- US rank
- #16778
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime B
Employment D+
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings C
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Fairfield Bay, AR
- County
- Van Buren · 15,459 people
- City population
- 2,264
- Population (ZIP)
- 2,264
- Household income
- $54,508
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 13% of renters
Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 15,459 people
- By 2030
- 14,645 · -5.3%
- By 2040
- 12,918 · -16.4%
- By 2050
- 11,263 · -27.1%
- By 2075
- 7,870 · -49.1%
- By 2100
- 4,918 · -68.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -0.48%
- Current HPI
- 238.2694
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.80%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 1 | $681B |
|
||
| Food / Agriculture | 1 | $53B |
|
||
| Retail / Energy | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $12B |
|
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| Energy | 1 | $4B |
|
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Price history
+159.6% since first listed13 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-27 Listed $135,000 CARMLS
- 2023-04-22 Pending — CARMLS
- 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) $134,500 CARMLS
- 2023-03-09 Contingent — CARMLS
- 2023-03-02 Listed $134,500 CARMLS
- 2023-02-28 Listing Removed — CARMLS
- 2022-11-19 Contingent — CARMLS
- 2022-10-20 Listed $144,900 CARMLS
- 2014-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $72,100 Public Records
- 2014-12-22 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CARMLS
- 2014-06-11 Listing Removed — CARMLS
- 2014-06-11 Listed $72,000 CARMLS
- 2008-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.3%/yrLatest (2025): $764 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…