5619 Bayshore Rd #240 · Memphis, FL 34221

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1980 4,169 sqft lot Est $125k · 32% over $188/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No damage from Hurrican Ian! Move right in this land owned home in a 55+ highly desirable community, Terra Ceia Manor. Built in 1980, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home has over 1900sf. All very well maintained over the years. There’s a spacious living room and dining room with built-in cabinets. The Florida room is large enough to create a great space for entertaining friends and family. Large storage and laundry tops it all off. Terra Ceia Manor community offers a huge, heated pool, shuffleboard, and horseshoe pits. There’s even a community library, game room with a pool table and an updated clubhouse. Conveniently located with easy access to I75 and I275 for quick and easy commutes to Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota and points beyond.

Key facts

• Updated clubhouse
• Community library
• Large florida room

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT-IN CABINETS
• LARGE FLORIDA ROOM
• HEATED POOL
• COMMUNITY LIBRARY
• GAME ROOM
• UPDATED CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre; Road surface: asphalt
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Advanced MGT of SWFL; Monthly HOA fee of $188 (required); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide (residential); Single-story; Faces west; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palmetto Elementary School (math 53% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 570 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,608
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5619 Bayshore Rd #142	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$125,000	$118	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,877
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $443
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,518

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.69mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	23d	1	0.87mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-01-14
    price $165,000
16. 2025-12-04
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2025-09-11
    historical
18. 2025-03-11
    listed $175,000 Active
19. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus $145,000
20. 2023-04-27
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed 751-char remark

    Show marketing remark (751 chars)

    No damage from Hurrican Ian! Move right in this land owned home in a 55+ highly desirable community, Terra Ceia Manor. Built in 1980, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home has over 1900sf. All very well maintained over the years. There’s a spacious living room and dining room with built-in cabinets. The Florida room is large enough to create a great space for entertaining friends and family. Large storage and laundry tops it all off. Terra Ceia Manor community offers a huge, heated pool, shuffleboard, and horseshoe pits. There’s even a community library, game room with a pool table and an updated clubhouse. Conveniently located with easy access to I75 and I275 for quick and easy commutes to Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota and points beyond.

21. 2023-03-25
    status Pending 751-char remark

    Show marketing remark (751 chars)

    No damage from Hurrican Ian! Move right in this land owned home in a 55+ highly desirable community, Terra Ceia Manor. Built in 1980, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home has over 1900sf. All very well maintained over the years. There’s a spacious living room and dining room with built-in cabinets. The Florida room is large enough to create a great space for entertaining friends and family. Large storage and laundry tops it all off. Terra Ceia Manor community offers a huge, heated pool, shuffleboard, and horseshoe pits. There’s even a community library, game room with a pool table and an updated clubhouse. Conveniently located with easy access to I75 and I275 for quick and easy commutes to Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota and points beyond.

22. 2023-03-15
    listed $148,500 Active 751-char remark

    Show marketing remark (751 chars)

    No damage from Hurrican Ian! Move right in this land owned home in a 55+ highly desirable community, Terra Ceia Manor. Built in 1980, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home has over 1900sf. All very well maintained over the years. There’s a spacious living room and dining room with built-in cabinets. The Florida room is large enough to create a great space for entertaining friends and family. Large storage and laundry tops it all off. Terra Ceia Manor community offers a huge, heated pool, shuffleboard, and horseshoe pits. There’s even a community library, game room with a pool table and an updated clubhouse. Conveniently located with easy access to I75 and I275 for quick and easy commutes to Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota and points beyond.

23. 2013-12-27
    soldstatus $56,000
24. 2013-12-13
    soldstatus $56,500
25. 2013-11-01
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$476
• After-tax cash flow: $3,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+175.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-27 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Listed $148,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-13 Sold (MLS) $56,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-01 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.