2451 SW Brandy Dr · Southeast Arcadia, FL 34266

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 268 Days on market

Built 1998 0.43 ac lot Est $256k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH $30,000 DOWN! Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering 1,620 sq ft of living space on a . 44-acre lot in Arcadia. Enjoy the freedom of NO HOA and NO lot rent, with plenty of room for parking, work vehicles, pets, or outdoor entertaining. This home features a split-bedroom floor plan, large living area, roomy kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a private primary suite with ensuite bath. The open yard offers endless potential for gardening, storage, or simply enjoying your space. One of the best values for a 3/2 on land in Arcadia. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Spa like bath
• Kitchen island

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• CLOSET PANTRY
• LARGE LAUNDRY MUDROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SPA LIKE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.44 acre (0.25–0.5 acre range); Zoned RM

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; East-facing; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 1,644 square feet
• Exterior features: Deck; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.3% in Southeast Arcadia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#864 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $145k implies a 144900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2451 SW Brandy Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$90	99
2465 SW Kleis Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,647 (+2%)	2mo	$260,000	$158	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $499
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $31,436
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34266

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   price $145,000
3. 2026-01-23
   price $154,500
4. 2026-01-20
   price $162,000
5. 2025-09-20
   price $170,000
6. 2025-08-20
   listed $185,000 Active
7. 2019-04-12
   soldstatus $100
8. 2006-11-09
   soldstatus $82,000
9. 2005-06-07
   soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$566
• After-tax cash flow: $3,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto
• NCES district ID: 1200420
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,136
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7305
• State rank: #69 of 73 in FL

Livability — Southeast Arcadia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #22423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,065

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,958 people
• By 2030: 34,465 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 33,137 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 31,273 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 23,898 · -31.6%
• By 2100: 15,517 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 28.2% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 403.1509
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+76.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $154,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2006-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,385 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.