455 107th Ln NW · Coon Rapids, MN 55448

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Townhouse public records

Built 1977 1,306 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in Coon Rapids — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in MN, #390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eisenhower Elementary (math 64% / reading 61%, grade B, #173 of 857 statewide, top 21%, 473 students, 60% FRL); Northdale Middle (math 40% / reading 55%, grade C-, #93 of 258 statewide, top 37%, 1,274 students, 46% FRL); Coon Rapids High School (math 37% / reading 64%, grade D+, #131 of 471 statewide, top 28%, 2,167 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 24% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $177,261 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,600
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,568
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55448

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,092/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $231	+0% $179	+5% $126	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $109	+0% $179	+5% $249	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $226	base $179	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10590 Kumquat St NW Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1313	$1,650	$1.26	12d	1	0.32mi
231 Northdale Blvd NW Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1044	$2,100	$2.01	45d	1	0.65mi
10630 Tamarack St NW Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,424	$1.58	25d	1	0.73mi
10060 Dogwood St NW Minneapolis, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1240	$1,895	$1.53	25d	2	0.91mi
9950 Redwood St NW Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	859	$1,300	$1.51	45d	1	1.17mi
750 99th Ave NW Minneapolis, MN	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1195	$1,725	$1.44	0d	4	1.19mi
249 99th Ave NE Unit 241-307 Blaine, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,445	$1.65	21d	1	1.30mi
249 99th Ave NE Unit 241-107 Blaine, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,445	$1.65	45d	1	1.30mi
249 99th Ave NE Unit 249-308 Blaine, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,430	$1.63	45d	1	1.30mi
9787 Palm St NW Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	903	$1,500	$1.66	6d	6	1.34mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-07
   listed $185,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,092 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,092 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,092
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $2,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Coon Rapids

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #390

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coon Rapids, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 63,468
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,005
• Household income: $103,461
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.29%
• Current HPI: 254.7687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+72.9% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Rental Removed $1,999 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $1,999 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $2,199 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-03 Listed for Rent $2,300 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Listed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listed $212,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listed $212,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $212,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $220,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-20 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-08 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2022-12-05 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2019-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) $135,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-16 Price Changed $138,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-01 Listed $142,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-01 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-19 Listed $72,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-01 Sold (MLS) $114,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-17 Listed $114,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-27 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-15 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $140,500 Public Records
• 2003-10-30 Sold (MLS) $140,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-18 Listed $134,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,092 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.