200 Padre Blvd Unit 3207 · South Padre Island, TX 78597

$355,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 967 sqft · Townhouse · 762 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition $367/sqft · 10% below area Est $395k · 10% under ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely Unit is nicely furnished with great views. Location is easy to access on and off the causeway and walking distance to some great eateries. They share a walk way with Beach Water Park. Amenities include covered parking, gated, Pool and Hot Tub, Play room and Play ground, Gym, Grilling stations, Tennis and Pickle Ball courts also dog friendly.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Pool and hot tub
• Dog friendly

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• POOL AND HOT TUB
• GATED
• TENNIS AND PICKLE BALL COURTS
• DOG FRIENDLY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $355k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.8% in South Padre Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,077 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 35% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 580 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,722/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 762 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,234 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 762 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,786
• List price: $355,000
• Delta: -10.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Padre Blvd Unit A314 (1314)	0.00mi	2/2.0	967 (0%)	8mo	$337,500	$349	93
200 Padre Blvd #1310	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+5%)	18mo	$399,000	$392	76
404 Padre Blvd #202	0.36mi	2/2.0	926 (-4%)	5mo	$519,000	$560	72
130 Padre Blvd #102	0.08mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	13mo	$250,000	$291	63
500 Padre Blvd #605	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,039 (+7%)	19mo	$375,000	$361	50
500 Padre Blvd #705	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,039 (+7%)	23mo	$410,000	$395	47
402 Padre Blvd #605	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+15%)	14mo	$499,000	$449	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-80,954
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-100,434
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 87.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $425,000 ($408/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78597

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 580
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,325/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,190

Max offer price $301,586

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-246	+0% $-369	+5% $-492	+10% $-614
Rent	-10% $-584	-5% $-477	+0% $-369	+5% $-262	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-279	base $-369	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Padre Blvd #1208 South Padre Island, TX	1.0	2.0	781	$3,000	$3.84	93d	1	0.02mi
404 Padre Blvd Unit 1507754P South Padre Island, TX	1.0	2.0	667	$3,382	$5.07	63d	1	0.34mi
113 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 2 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	63d	1	0.97mi
111 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 201 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$2,500	$2.69	63d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $355,000 Active 762 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $355,000 Active 761 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $355,000 Active 760 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $355,000 Active 759 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $355,000 Active 758 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $355,000 Active 757 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $355,000 Active 754 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $355,000 Active 752 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $355,000 Active 750 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $355,000 Active 748 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $355,000 Active 746 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $355,000 Active 745 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $355,000 Active 744 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,000 Active 741 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $355,000 Active 739 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $355,000 Active 738 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $355,000 Active 737 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $355,000 Active 736 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $355,000 Active 735 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $355,000 Active 734 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $355,000 Active 733 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $355,000 Active 732 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $355,000 Active 731 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $355,000 Active 730 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,000 Active 729 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $355,000 Active 728 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $355,000 Active 727 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 726 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 725 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $355,000 Active 724 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $355,000 Active 723 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $355,000 Active 722 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $355,000 Active 721 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $355,000 Active 720 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $355,000 Active 719 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $355,000 Active 717 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $355,000 Active 715 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $355,000 Active 714 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $355,000 Active 711 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $355,000 Active 710 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $355,000 Active 709 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $355,000 Active 708 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $355,000 Active 706 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $355,000 Active 705 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $355,000 Active 703 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $355,000 Active 702 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $355,000 Active 701 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $355,000 Active 700 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 696 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 695 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$5,325
• − Insurance: −$2,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,613
• − Management: −$2,613
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$10,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,835–$14,505 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is in excellent condition with good curb appeal and potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Point Isabel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835250
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,115
• Composite: 18.78/100
• National rank: #8871
• State rank: #756 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — South Padre Island

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #19107

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Padre Island, TX
• County: Cameron County · 441,603 people
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,935
• Household income: $68,421
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

---

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.59%
• Current HPI: 425.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-07-30 Delisted — RGVMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $355,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $365,000 RGVMLS