4438 Pine Lake Rd · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$675,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,500 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 2001 7,230 sqft lot Est $952k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Only a 5 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE BEACH!!!! Great opportunity to own a beautiful duplex in the desirable Imperial Shores community, this area is so sought after due to the short 1.5 mile/5 minute drive to Bonita Beach, great restaurants and shopping. Each unit has a Spacious 2 bd with 2 full bathrooms, Master bedrooms with private bathroom for privacy and comfort. All tiled throughout, washer and dryer, enclosed lanai with storage space, plenty of parking up to 6 cars in driveway, Separate water and electric meter.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Private entrances
• 7,230 sq ft lot

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING DUPLEX
• PRIVATE ENTRANCES
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA amenities; Community type: see remarks

Exterior

• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer (assessment paid); Cable available
• Home design: Residential income property; Duplex building; 1-story (Ranch) design; Located in IMPERIAL SHORES development; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 2001
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Stucco exterior; Regular lot; Canal: none

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Single-hung windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $675k).
• Recommended offer: $594k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,455/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 554% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $189k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($594k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $675k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $594,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.09%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $952,500
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4851 Gary Rd	0.25mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,562 (+2%)	11mo	$975,000	$381	68
27632 Imperial Shores Blvd #634	0.09mi	4/4.0	2,160 (-14%)	16mo	$575,000	$266	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $53,766
• Equity at exit: $100,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $253,679
• Equity at exit: $58,362

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$642 /mo · $7,709/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,986
• Net cashflow: $2,579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,190

Max offer price $675,000

Occupancy floor 68%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2.5	$9,456
Total (2 units)			$9,455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4412 Vanda Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.08mi
27570 Tarpon Way Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	3.5	3198	$19,950	$6.24	12d	1	0.24mi
4860 Gary Rd Unit 4 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,900	$1.55	24d	1	0.29mi
4879 Esplanade St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1888	$16,000	$8.47	12d	1	0.35mi
71 3rd St Unit 1073513P Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	2658	$7,739	$2.91	14d	1	0.40mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	23d	1	0.51mi
211 6th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$11,900	$5.95	23d	1	0.55mi
4975 Bonita Beach Rd #106 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$11,000	$5.87	23d	1	0.59mi
27080 Lake Harbor Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$7,500	$4.25	24d	1	0.83mi
3620 Bailes St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1992	$12,000	$6.02	24d	1	0.92mi
28450 Winthrop Cir Unit 1546014P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$7,804	$4.12	14d	1	0.99mi
4252 Sanctuary Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	3241	$20,000	$6.17	12d	1	1.03mi
27038 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1818	$8,500	$4.68	24d	1	1.07mi
26960 Wyndhurst Ct #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2836	$11,000	$3.88	24d	1	1.08mi
27121 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1892	$8,900	$4.70	3d	1	1.11mi
27119 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1812	$7,500	$4.14	24d	1	1.11mi
27113 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$7,500	$3.99	24d	1	1.13mi
26926 Montego Pointe Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2008	$9,500	$4.73	24d	1	1.13mi
26968 Montego Pointe Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2008	$4,100	$2.04	24d	1	1.13mi
26871 Wyndhurst Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2836	$12,000	$4.23	24d	1	1.13mi
26850 Wedgewood Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1781	$8,500	$4.77	24d	1	1.16mi
28567 Clinton Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2285	$13,000	$5.69	14d	1	1.17mi
28567 Clinton Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2285	$13,000	$5.69	19d	1	1.17mi
27725 Forester Dr Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	4.5	3059	$25,000	$8.17	12d	1	1.19mi
28211 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$10,500	$5.47	24d	1	1.21mi
27806 Forester Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	3314	$7,200	$2.17	24d	1	1.25mi
4811 Island Pond Ct #302 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2728	$13,000	$4.77	13d	1	1.31mi
28070 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2008	$12,000	$5.98	24d	1	1.33mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd #4 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2003	$25,000	$12.48	14d	1	1.34mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$25,000	$13.41	14d	2	1.34mi
5731 Marimin Dr Unit 1073514P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2249	$5,637	$2.51	3d	1	1.37mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	23d	2	1.44mi
9040 Carolina St Unit 1073518P Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	1915	$7,937	$4.14	16d	1	1.49mi
27500 Palmesta Cir Unit 41 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $675,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $675,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $675,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $675,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $675,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $675,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $675,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $675,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $675,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $675,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-01-30
    price $675,000
12. 2026-01-09
    listed $650,000 Active
13. 2021-04-05
    soldstatus $450,000
14. 2021-04-02
    soldstatus $450,000 Closed 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Only a 5 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE BEACH!!!! Great opportunity to own a beautiful duplex in the desirable Imperial Shores community, this area is so sought after due to the short 1.5 mile/5 minute drive to Bonita Beach, great restaurants and shopping. Each unit has a Spacious 2 bd with 2 full bathrooms, Master bedrooms with private bathroom for privacy and comfort. All tiled throughout, washer and dryer, enclosed lanai with storage space, plenty of parking up to 6 cars in driveway, Separate water and electric meter.

15. 2021-03-10
    status Pending 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Only a 5 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE BEACH!!!! Great opportunity to own a beautiful duplex in the desirable Imperial Shores community, this area is so sought after due to the short 1.5 mile/5 minute drive to Bonita Beach, great restaurants and shopping. Each unit has a Spacious 2 bd with 2 full bathrooms, Master bedrooms with private bathroom for privacy and comfort. All tiled throughout, washer and dryer, enclosed lanai with storage space, plenty of parking up to 6 cars in driveway, Separate water and electric meter.

16. 2021-03-05
    listed $450,000 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Only a 5 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE BEACH!!!! Great opportunity to own a beautiful duplex in the desirable Imperial Shores community, this area is so sought after due to the short 1.5 mile/5 minute drive to Bonita Beach, great restaurants and shopping. Each unit has a Spacious 2 bd with 2 full bathrooms, Master bedrooms with private bathroom for privacy and comfort. All tiled throughout, washer and dryer, enclosed lanai with storage space, plenty of parking up to 6 cars in driveway, Separate water and electric meter.

17. 2015-01-15
    soldstatus $300,000
18. 2009-05-08
    listed $450,000
19. 1994-03-01
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,709 · $642/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,709 · $642/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $113,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$7,709
• − Insurance: −$8,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,077
• − Management: −$9,077
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable income: $21,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,198
• After-tax cash flow: $25,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1025.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $675,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $650,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-02 Sold (MLS) $450,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-03-10 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-05 Listed $450,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2009-05-08 Listed $450,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1994-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,709 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.