104 Lafayette Ave · Niles, OH 44446

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1930 6,534 sqft lot Est $143k · 48% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A delightful, three-bedroom Cape Cod boasts two floors of freshly renovated living space complete with a sizeable basement! This charming Niles residence has plenty to offer beginning with its covered front and expansive rear patios, a detached two car garage with storage shed and an attractive corner lot. Step inside the front door to find a handsome living room filled with ash colored hardwood style flooring accented with clean, white trim work. A carpeted staircase leads up to the trio of bedrooms while a sculpted entry way lends to an illustrious dining room where a brick accent wall houses recessed windows and hidden storage. The central kitchen allows for nearby casual dining as it showcases its stainless appliances and marble-look countertops. Upstairs, each of the bedrooms include large corner closets and plush carpeted floors. A unique full bath joins them with a soaking tub surrounded by stone tiles. Down below, the sealed and painted basement brings bright and dry storage al

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (see broker for details)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces), paved with electricity
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Built per public records; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedrooms and living areas included)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.7% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#628 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Niles City (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #507 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Lincoln Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+6%)	4mo	$165,000	$140	75
213 N Bentley Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-2%)	6mo	$40,000	$37	75
804 Hartzell Ave	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,086 (-2%)	0mo	$168,700	$155	65
819 Niles Vienna Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+1%)	1mo	$148,000	$132	64
114 Russell Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+2%)	4mo	$147,500	$129	59
14 Evans St	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	994 (-11%)	2mo	$145,000	$146	58
820 Hartzell Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+12%)	3mo	$160,000	$129	54
732 Washington Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,179 (+6%)	11mo	$132,500	$112	54
527 Belmont Ave	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,150 (+3%)	11mo	$106,000	$92	50
1422 Youll St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+8%)	10mo	$121,400	$101	41
220 N Cleveland Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,235 (+11%)	10mo	$164,000	$133	40
304 Baldwin Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	946 (-15%)	3mo	$120,000	$127	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $7,976
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $32,980
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44446

• Home prices YoY: -19.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,601/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $706

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $337	+0% $315	+5% $294	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $272	+0% $315	+5% $359	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $334	base $315	+0.5pp $296	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Circle St Unit 5 Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$850	$0.71	14d	1	0.40mi
35 Neil St #1 Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	1264	$950	$0.75	14d	1	0.81mi
701 Summit Ave Niles, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,220	$1.27	14d	1	0.83mi
1916 Youll St Niles, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1216	$1,130	$0.93	14d	1	1.15mi
2122 Robbins Ave Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	593	$905	$1.52	14d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 407-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $75,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,601
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles City
• NCES district ID: 3904449
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,965
• Composite: 37.02/100
• National rank: #4517
• State rank: #507 of 656 in OH

Livability — Niles

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 20,060
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,060
• Household income: $50,468
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 820.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.52%
• Current HPI: 198.7738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $75,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-07-20 Sold (MLS) $160,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-04-18 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2022-04-15 Listed $150,000 MLSNOW
• 2007-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-13 Sold (MLS) $86,000 MLSNOW
• 2006-10-11 Listed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 1989-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,601 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.