Montour Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$243,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The family room, dining room and kitchen are arranged in a convenient open floorplan in this single-level home, offering seamless transition between spaces to help make multitasking simple. Three bedrooms complete this residence, including an owner's suite with a private en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Listed 219 days

🏗️ New construction. The $243,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,997.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,244 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,997
• List price: $243,999
• Delta: -16.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Madrid	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+4%)	2mo	$269,900	$212	80
297 Keefer	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,230 (0%)	2mo	$252,990	$206	65
125 Bugbee	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,230 (0%)	6mo	$230,990	$188	63
189 Bugbee	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,230 (0%)	7mo	$229,990	$187	61
1612 Sanders	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,137 (-8%)	1mo	$229,999	$202	60
415 Keefer	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,228 (-0%)	4mo	$205,990	$168	58
1124 Nevarez	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+12%)	9mo	$284,000	$205	50
1261 Nevarez	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+12%)	13mo	$250,000	$181	47
1276 Nevarez	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+12%)	11mo	$269,000	$194	45
3345 Everett St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	6mo	$304,990	$216	42
3290 Everett St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	6mo	$305,990	$217	42
3221 Everett St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	8mo	$300,990	$213	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-82,691
• Equity at exit: $43,389

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-132,429
• Equity at exit: $25,160

Cash invested: $81,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,000 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 97 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $223,192

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-267	-5% $-368	+0% $-469	+5% $-569	+10% $-670
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-546	+0% $-469	+5% $-391	+10% $-314
Rate	-1.0pp $-322	-0.5pp $-395	base $-469	+0.5pp $-544	+1.0pp $-621

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,749
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1181 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,825	$1.37	74d	1	0.10mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	100d	1	0.10mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	113d	1	0.13mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,800	$1.35	67d	1	0.15mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	108d	1	0.17mi
228 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,900	$1.54	67d	1	0.22mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,800	$1.26	62d	1	0.22mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	139d	1	0.24mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	3d	21	0.24mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	42d	42	0.45mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,690	$2.97	3d	31	0.55mi
1612 Sanders Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,800	$1.58	6d	1	0.58mi
1075 Vaughn Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$2,314	$3.02	29d	10	0.66mi
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	97d	1	0.67mi
5711 FM 2770 Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1432	$2,010	$1.40	9d	2	0.69mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,750	$1.89	4d	5	0.72mi
1050 Wittenburg Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,605	$1.82	3d	13	0.78mi
251B Utterback Unit 251 B Utterback Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,700	$1.21	42d	1	0.83mi
251 Utterback Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,700	$1.21	42d	1	0.84mi
4700 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,847	$1.45	9d	1	0.86mi
5679 Fergus Unit B Kyle, TX	2.0	2.5	1218	$1,650	$1.35	6d	1	0.87mi
215 Michaelis Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,595	$1.29	42d	1	0.99mi
101 Princess Jennifer Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,770	$1.33	9d	1	1.04mi
145 Michaelis Unit A Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1236	$1,550	$1.25	42d	1	1.05mi
4925 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,713	$1.82	3d	9	1.06mi
305 Rocking M Rd Unit 2 Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	119d	1	1.07mi
435 McGarity Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,795	$1.49	113d	1	1.12mi
483 McGarity Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1305	$1,750	$1.34	29d	1	1.15mi
5020 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,512	$1.46	42d	1	1.17mi
437 Sampson Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,750	$1.27	67d	1	1.18mi
437 Sampson Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,750	$1.27	62d	1	1.18mi
4937 Hartson Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	139d	1	1.19mi
5141 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,374	$1.43	9d	1	1.19mi
117 Decker Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,700	$1.20	60d	1	1.19mi
117 Decker Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,700	$1.20	62d	1	1.19mi
204 Quail Meadow Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,500	$2.18	119d	1	1.26mi
204 Quail Meadow Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,800	$1.57	29d	1	1.26mi
183 Glocken Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,100	$1.46	29d	1	1.33mi
183 Glocken Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,275	$1.59	72d	1	1.33mi
4831 Mather Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,850	$1.41	100d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $243,999 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $243,999 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $243,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $243,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $243,999 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $243,999 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $243,999 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $243,999 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $243,999 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $243,999 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $243,999 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    price $243,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $242,999 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $242,999 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $242,999 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $242,999 Active 201 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $242,999 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $242,999 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $242,999 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $242,999 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $242,999 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $242,999 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $242,999 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $242,999 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $242,999 Active 189 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $242,999 Active 188 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $242,999 Active 187 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $242,999 Active 186 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $242,999 Active 185 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $242,999 Active 184 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $242,999 Active 183 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $242,999 Active 182 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $242,999 Active 181 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $242,999 Active 180 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $242,999 Active 179 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $242,999 Active 178 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $242,999 Active 176 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $242,999 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $242,999 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $242,999 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $242,999 Active 171 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $242,999 Active 170 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $242,999 Active 169 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $242,999 Active 168 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $242,999 Active 165 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $242,999 Active 163 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $242,999 Active 162 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $242,999 Active 160 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $242,999 Active 158 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $242,999 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$10,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,617
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,150–$18,450 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura B Negley El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $242,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $242,990 Zillow