16 Argyle Ln · Springs, NY 11937

$1,395,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1971 0.35 ac lot Est $1577k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Clearwater Beach community, this well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and strong upside in a prime East Hampton setting. The home features wood floors, a wood-burning fireplace, skylights, and a bright, open layout. A renovated kitchen (2018) with updated appliances and refreshed bathrooms provide a move-in ready feel, with additional flexible space on the lower level. Enjoy a private backyard with a 40x20 in-ground pool, new motor and equipment, a hot tub on the deck, outdoor shower, and a full property irrigation system, along with a freshly painted deck and exterior (2024)—perfect for summer living and entertaining. Addition

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Private backyard
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SKYLIGHTS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• IN GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($120k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.37M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,438/mo this rent would consume 217% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $391k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.37M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $1.40M implies a 365% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,374,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.65%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,576,800
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Sherwood Ln	0.38mi	4/3.5	1,750 (-0%)	9mo	$1,575,000	$900	68
16 Lion Head Rock Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0	1,600 (-9%)	10mo	$1,850,000	$1,156	67
104 Pembroke Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,697 (-3%)	14mo	$1,525,000	$899	59
18 Norfolk Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-14%)	0mo	$1,180,000	$787	52
234 Norfolk Dr	0.63mi	4/4.0	1,886 (+8%)	4mo	$1,950,000	$1,034	46
116 Underwood Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,000 (+14%)	7mo	$1,300,000	$650	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $532,807
• Equity at exit: $207,999

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $1,844,469
• Equity at exit: $120,614

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax from tax record: −$644 /mo · $7,726/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,922
• Net cashflow: $9,975

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,811

Max offer price $1,395,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,765	-5% $10,370	+0% $9,975	+5% $9,580	+10% $9,185
Rent	-10% $8,123	-5% $9,049	+0% $9,975	+5% $10,901	+10% $11,827
Rate	-1.0pp $10,678	-0.5pp $10,330	base $9,975	+0.5pp $9,614	+1.0pp $9,246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Pembroke Dr East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$30,000	$15.00	25d	1	0.32mi
1181 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$75,000	$46.88	45d	1	0.35mi
83 Rutland Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2500	$20,000	$8.00	45d	1	0.36mi
104 Waterhole Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	2500	$65,000	$26.00	25d	1	0.41mi
85 Camberly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	1700	$40,000	$23.53	25d	1	0.48mi
221 Norfolk Dr East Hampton, NY	5.0	2.0	1500	$30,000	$20.00	45d	1	0.62mi
63 Isle of Wight Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2400	$13,000	$5.42	45d	1	0.63mi
89 Isle of Wight Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2600	$6,000	$2.31	20d	1	0.64mi
1039 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$85,000	$34.00	45d	1	0.80mi
12 Underwood Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$30,000	$18.75	20d	1	0.88mi
19 Pond Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$85,000	$56.67	45d	1	0.89mi
197 Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$20,000	$11.76	45d	1	1.02mi
12 Maidstone Park Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.5	1800	$75,000	$41.67	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $1,395,000 Active
3. 2000-05-24
   soldstatus $300,000
4. 1989-11-16
   soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,726 · $644/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,651 · $1,304/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,925/yr (+$660/mo · 102.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $281,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$7,726
• − Insurance: −$6,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,500
• − Management: −$22,500
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable income: $102,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,678
• After-tax cash flow: $95,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+634.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,726 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.