Viola Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$475,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a game room, 2-car attached garage and a covered patio. Chef's kitchen with casual eating area, as well as two separate countertop eating areas. Dramatic two-story family room overlooks covered patio. Large main suite privately located overlooks backyard with easy access to covered patio. Three secondary bedrooms, full bath and spacious game room upstairs. 5th Bedroom with study option. Family room with fireplace option available.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: - List price $475,990

Exterior

• Home design: - New construction plan named Viola; - Living area approximately 2,644 square feet
• Construction: - Single-family property (Plan); - Address: Viola Plan, Missouri City, TX 77459

Interior

• Bedrooms: - Five bedrooms
• Bathrooms: - Three full bathrooms

🏗️ New construction. The $475,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $404,532.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $476k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $476k).
• Recommended offer: $462k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,102/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $113k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $461,710 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.09%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $404,532
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,591 (-2%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	78
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,517 (-5%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	74
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,522 (-5%)	8mo	$410,989	$163	74
1706 Country Air Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,700 (+2%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	68
1722 Country Air Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,773 (+5%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	67
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,381 (-10%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	65
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,763 (+4%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	65
1610 Country Air Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,388 (-10%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	60
1506 Country Air Ln	0.46mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,808 (+6%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	58
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,413 (-9%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	57
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,935 (+11%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	46
2014 Orchard Trail Ct	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,028 (+14%)	8mo	$545,000	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $21,292
• Equity at exit: $84,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $83,278
• Equity at exit: $78,584

Cash invested: $113,269 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,121
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$506 /mo · $6,068/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,539

Max offer price $404,532

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,515	-5% $1,375	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,095	+10% $956
Rent	-10% $832	-5% $1,034	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,437	+10% $1,638
Rate	-1.0pp $1,439	-0.5pp $1,338	base $1,235	+0.5pp $1,130	+1.0pp $1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,133
• Closing costs: $12,136
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.15mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.16mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $475,990 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,990 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,990 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $475,990 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,990 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,990 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,990 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,990 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,660
• − Property taxes: −$6,068
• − Insurance: −$2,023
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,898
• − Management: −$4,898
• − Depreciation: −$11,768
• Taxable income: $8,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $12,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in Sienna, TX, is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern kitchen. It offers a spacious layout with five bedrooms and three bathrooms, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint improves the home's appearance and value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint improves the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B