12468 E 39 Way · Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85367

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1984 7,150 sqft lot Est $192k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Freshly remodeled, new paint inside and out, new flooring, large pantry, new siding and much, much more. Owner/Agent.

Key facts

• Large pantry
• 7,150 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE PANTRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; 1 covered space; Attached carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Shed(s)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Has view; Lot approximately 7,150 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Smoke detector(s); Shed(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gila Ridge High School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #263 of 381 statewide, top 70%, 2,309 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.75%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12467 E 39 Pl	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	1mo	$174,000	$181	86
12400 S Renee Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	5mo	$250,000	$240	69
12463 E 37 St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-8%)	3mo	$155,000	$168	66
12225 E 39 St	0.30mi	3/2.5	896 (-11%)	2mo	$166,000	$185	64
12554 E 41 Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	4mo	$180,000	$156	61
11577 S Hunter Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-11%)	3mo	$229,900	$257	59
12326 S Renee Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	6mo	$224,500	$195	55
12576 E 44 Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,077 (+7%)	3mo	$245,000	$227	52
13218 E 39 Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+11%)	0mo	$208,000	$186	50
12424 E 34 St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	933 (-7%)	2mo	$180,000	$193	48
12826 E 37 St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+14%)	2mo	$199,000	$173	42
12821 E 35 Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,158 (+15%)	1mo	$220,375	$190	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,979
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $36,296
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85367

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,707 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $467/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $395	+0% $347	+5% $299	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $280	+0% $347	+5% $415	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $390	base $347	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12255 E 37th St Yuma, AZ	2.0	2.0	967	$1,600	$1.65	15d	1	0.37mi
13117 E 41st St Yuma, AZ	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,400	$1.28	15d	1	0.60mi
12443 E Brenda Dr Yuma, AZ	2.0	2.0	914	$1,400	$1.53	15d	1	0.77mi
13244 E 41st Ln Yuma, AZ	2.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	15d	1	0.77mi
11649 E 33rd Pl Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	15d	1	0.83mi
13388 E 41st Dr Yuma, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,200	$1.44	15d	1	0.96mi
12408 E Calle Maria Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,800	$1.43	15d	1	1.01mi
13308 E 45th St Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,800	$1.40	15d	1	1.04mi
11623 E 33rd Way Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,795	$1.30	15d	1	1.05mi
12374 E Camino Loma Vis Yuma, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$1,600	$1.27	15d	1	1.18mi
12615 E 49th St Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,750	$1.18	15d	1	1.19mi
10736 S Calle Raquel Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,600	$1.22	15d	1	1.27mi
10685 S Calle Raquel Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.5	1190	$2,500	$2.10	15d	1	1.30mi
10642 S Camino del Sol #5 Yuma, AZ	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,400	$1.39	22d	1	1.31mi
13239 E 49th Dr Yuma, AZ	2.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 2025-10-21
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 1997-09-22
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $467 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 140.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$467
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$341
• After-tax cash flow: $3,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fortuna Foothills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #18663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna Foothills, AZ
• County: Yuma County · 149,809 people
• City population: 21,356
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,074
• Household income: $58,469
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.81%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+277.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $170,000 YAR
• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $467 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.