311 Essex Dr · Fort Pierce North, FL 34946

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,362 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1971 8,250 sqft lot Est $331k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home featuring stylish upgrades throughout! Enjoy peace of mind with a brand new roof, new AC and modern finishes in every room. The updated kitchen boasts new cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Both bathrooms have been tastefully remodeled with new vanities, tile, and fixtures. New flooring flows throughout the home with absolutely no carpet. Move-in ready and designed with comfort and style in mind — don't miss this one!

Key facts

• New cabinets
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Built with block/brick/CBS construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: No waterfront; Off Hilton Drive

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#480 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $270k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,692 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,966
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3415 Avenue R	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+6%)	12mo	$350,000	$243	64
2311 N 42nd St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,455 (+7%)	23mo	$175,300	$120	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $63,772
• Equity at exit: $168,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $197,915
• Equity at exit: $304,078

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34946

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,828/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,232

Max offer price $234,256

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Hilton Dr Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	1.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	23d	1	0.10mi
3101 Avenue T Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,980	$1.86	23d	1	0.14mi
107 Bedford Dr Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	1.5	1362	$2,400	$1.76	23d	1	0.34mi
1710 N 21st St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	968	$2,100	$2.17	13d	1	0.77mi
1408 N 23rd St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,900	$1.71	13d	1	0.78mi
1910 Juanita Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	13d	1	0.79mi
1308 N 21st St Apt A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	23d	1	0.91mi
4005 Avenue I Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,600	$1.82	23d	1	0.95mi
4005 Avenue I Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,600	$1.82	13d	1	0.95mi
1601 N 17th St Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	996	$1,650	$1.66	23d	1	1.02mi
2809 Jefferson Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	13d	1	1.07mi
2007 N 49th St Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.5	1450	$2,399	$1.65	13d	1	1.07mi
2705 Avenue E Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1161	$1,800	$1.55	23d	1	1.10mi
907 N 20th St Apt B Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	1.11mi
2736 Seneca Ave Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1674	$1,800	$1.08	23d	1	1.12mi
505 N 27th St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	879	$2,660	$3.03	23d	1	1.19mi
2908 Dunbar St Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	942	$1,300	$1.38	21d	1	1.22mi
704 N 18th St Unit B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1352	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	1.32mi
1617 Avenue E Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	23d	1	1.42mi
204 N 28th St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	23d	1	1.49mi
1405 Avenue G Apt A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,200	$2.07	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,900 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $269,900 Active
18. 2026-02-04
    soldstatus $135,000
19. 1996-03-01
    soldstatus $40,000
20. 1990-12-12
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,828 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,828 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,828
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Pierce North

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #8764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Pierce North, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,588

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 34% White 26% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.92%
• Current HPI: 351.3324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1249.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $269,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1990-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,828 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.