OAK Plan · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$294,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,952 sqft · SingleFamily · 394 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You'll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs! Options include: Fourth bedroom in lieu of loft Covered patio off great room

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Dining area
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,798.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,190 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,798
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: 0.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7827 Bergamot Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,952 (0%)	1mo	$299,900	$154	78
8026 Peppercorn St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-10%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	76
20 Courageous Side Way	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,708 (-12%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	69
7819 Bergamot Cir	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,897 (-3%)	1mo	$299,900	$158	68
7950 Alset Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-9%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	67
8031 Heroes Hall Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-9%)	0mo	$294,900	$165	65
203 Brazen Forest Trl	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-14%)	2mo	$279,900	$167	61
209 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-14%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	60
7749 Bergamot Cir	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-9%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	59
175 Courageous Side Way	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-15%)	1mo	$279,900	$168	58
7823 Bergamot Cir	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-14%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	55
7745 Bergamot Cir	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-14%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $132,873
• Equity at exit: $264,676

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $398,084
• Equity at exit: $570,784

Cash invested: $82,263 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,541
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,407/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,570

Max offer price $244,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-237	+0% $-338	+5% $-440	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-507	-5% $-423	+0% $-338	+5% $-254	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-264	base $-338	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,449
• Closing costs: $8,814
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	0d	1	0.18mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	14d	1	0.20mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	45d	1	0.30mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	26d	1	0.30mi
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	45d	1	0.31mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	26d	1	0.92mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	14d	1	0.97mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	26d	1	0.97mi
146 Black Swan Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,495	$0.98	24d	1	1.12mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.20mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,320	$1.47	0d	1	1.31mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	13d	1	1.31mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,768	$1.50	0d	47	1.34mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	12d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 382 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 381 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 380 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,990 Active 377 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 376 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 375 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 374 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 373 DOM
15. 2025-05-23
    listed $294,990 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You'll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs! Options include: Fourth bedroom in lieu of loft Covered patio off great room

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,457
• − Property taxes: −$4,407
• − Insurance: −$1,469
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,547
• Taxable loss: −$9,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,230
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Listed $294,990 Zillow