27200 County Road 316 N/A · Urbana, MO 65767

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,770 sqft · Other public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1982 3.18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

YOUR SEARCH IS OVER!! This is the property you have been looking for. A 2,000 square foot home on 3 acres M/L that offers a partial or seasonal view of Pomme De Terre Lake. The home offers 4 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms with a dining kitchen combo with a walk out to a covered porch. The large living area will make a great space for entertaining that includes the wood burning fireplace and a walk out to the large back deck. The attached 2 car garage measures at 25x23.3 and includes access to the laundry room. The storage building measures at 24x30 and has power and a concrete floor. This one could easily be set up for Lake fun, Family & Friends.

Key facts

• 3.18 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located outside city limits; Directions: From NN turn Right on County Road 363, turn Right on County Road 316, home is on your Right
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Approx. 1,420 above-grade living area; Age: 41–50 years
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private water source; Private sewer; Not in a flood plain; Lot is about 3.18 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling (central)
• Interior features: Raised ranch floor plan; Slab foundation; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (38.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#629 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickory County R-I (rural): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #8 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $128,483 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.38%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $48,147
• Equity at exit: $136,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $153,515
• Equity at exit: $251,969

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65767

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $163,472

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $210,000 513-char remark
18. 2026-05-08
    price $220,000 513-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $250,000 Active 513-char remark
20. 2023-03-28
    soldstatus Closed 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER!! This is the property you have been looking for. A 2,000 square foot home on 3 acres M/L that offers a partial or seasonal view of Pomme De Terre Lake. The home offers 4 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms with a dining kitchen combo with a walk out to a covered porch. The large living area will make a great space for entertaining that includes the wood burning fireplace and a walk out to the large back deck. The attached 2 car garage measures at 25x23.3 and includes access to the laundry room. The storage building measures at 24x30 and has power and a concrete floor. This one could easily be set up for Lake fun, Family & Friends.

21. 2023-03-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER!! This is the property you have been looking for. A 2,000 square foot home on 3 acres M/L that offers a partial or seasonal view of Pomme De Terre Lake. The home offers 4 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms with a dining kitchen combo with a walk out to a covered porch. The large living area will make a great space for entertaining that includes the wood burning fireplace and a walk out to the large back deck. The attached 2 car garage measures at 25x23.3 and includes access to the laundry room. The storage building measures at 24x30 and has power and a concrete floor. This one could easily be set up for Lake fun, Family & Friends.

22. 2023-03-23
    soldstatus
23. 2023-02-20
    status Pending 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER!! This is the property you have been looking for. A 2,000 square foot home on 3 acres M/L that offers a partial or seasonal view of Pomme De Terre Lake. The home offers 4 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms with a dining kitchen combo with a walk out to a covered porch. The large living area will make a great space for entertaining that includes the wood burning fireplace and a walk out to the large back deck. The attached 2 car garage measures at 25x23.3 and includes access to the laundry room. The storage building measures at 24x30 and has power and a concrete floor. This one could easily be set up for Lake fun, Family & Friends.

24. 2022-11-10
    listed $180,000 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER!! This is the property you have been looking for. A 2,000 square foot home on 3 acres M/L that offers a partial or seasonal view of Pomme De Terre Lake. The home offers 4 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms with a dining kitchen combo with a walk out to a covered porch. The large living area will make a great space for entertaining that includes the wood burning fireplace and a walk out to the large back deck. The attached 2 car garage measures at 25x23.3 and includes access to the laundry room. The storage building measures at 24x30 and has power and a concrete floor. This one could easily be set up for Lake fun, Family & Friends.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$961/yr (+$80/mo · 89.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$7,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickory County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914320
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,125
• Composite: 54.03/100
• National rank: #1393
• State rank: #8 of 324 in MO

Livability — Urbana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #21576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,860

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Iranian 9% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 256.3794
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $210,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $220,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $250,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-28 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-20 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-11-10 Listed $180,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,076 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.