409 Cockerell Dr · Abilene, TX 79601

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1954 6,273 sqft lot $43/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR'S SPECIAL - we submit this burnt offering, a condemned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home for your consideration. Bring your ideas and cash to renovate.

Key facts

• 6,273 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $979 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.4% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,308/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.38%
• DSCR: 5.47
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,834
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -69.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
758 N Carver St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	11mo	$159,900	$127	55
914 Minda St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	1mo	$203,000	$162	48
910 Minda St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	1mo	$203,000	$162	48
906 Minda St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	2mo	$203,000	$162	48
902 Minda St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	2mo	$203,000	$162	47
1034 Piedmont Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+10%)	0mo	$275,000	$179	44
898 Minda St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	8mo	$203,000	$162	42
894 Minda St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	9mo	$203,000	$162	42
833 E North 10th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+11%)	12mo	$219,000	$142	35
634 Harwell St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+13%)	20mo	$230,000	$146	32
1009 Piedmont Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+13%)	13mo	$213,000	$136	32
742 E North 11th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-12%)	19mo	$145,000	$119	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $65,110
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.2%
• Equity multiple: 12.53×
• Total profit: $193,693
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79601

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Rents YoY: 43.4%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $941/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $979

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
874 N Judge Ely Blvd Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	928	$1,595	$1.72	20d	1	0.68mi
921 Bruce Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	13d	1	0.91mi
702 N 13th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,200	$1.65	13d	1	1.06mi
1426 Plum St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,014	$1.85	13d	1	1.14mi
619 Poplar St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,695	$1.92	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $60,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    INVESTOR'S SPECIAL - we submit this burnt offering, a condemned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home for your consideration. Bring your ideas and cash to renovate.

18. 2026-04-15
    status Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    INVESTOR'S SPECIAL - we submit this burnt offering, a condemned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home for your consideration. Bring your ideas and cash to renovate.

19. 2026-04-10
    historical Active Option Contract 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    INVESTOR'S SPECIAL - we submit this burnt offering, a condemned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home for your consideration. Bring your ideas and cash to renovate.

20. 2026-03-05
    price $65,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    INVESTOR'S SPECIAL - we submit this burnt offering, a condemned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home for your consideration. Bring your ideas and cash to renovate.

21. 2026-02-03
    listed $70,000 Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    INVESTOR'S SPECIAL - we submit this burnt offering, a condemned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home for your consideration. Bring your ideas and cash to renovate.

22. 2013-03-20
    soldstatus
23. 1994-07-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $941 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$941
• − Insurance: −$5,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $11,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,832
• After-tax cash flow: $8,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,050
• Household income: $53,631
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.17%
• Current HPI: 214.4372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 43.38%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2013-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+38.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $941 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.