3514 Hilts Trl · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$200,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Land · 99 Days on market

Built 2024 4,356 sqft lot $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated COE April 2026.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Community pool; Association transfer fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by GVEC; Water system connected; Sewer system connected; Garbage service by Tiger
• Home design: New construction by Lennar; Cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Subdivision: Voss Farms
• Construction: Approximately 2 years old
• Exterior features: Privacy fence; Asphalt improvements

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Kitchen dimensions 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Master bedroom dimensions 14 x 15; Bedroom 2 dimensions 12 x 11; Bedroom 3 dimensions 11 x 12
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination; Master bath dimensions 8 x 8
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; 1 living area; Cable TV available; Utility room inside; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $201k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,261 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,936
• Equity at exit: $29,970

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-34,048
• Equity at exit: $17,379

Cash invested: $56,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,054
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $200,999

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,250
• Closing costs: $6,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	17d	1	0.02mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	14d	1	0.14mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	43d	1	0.24mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$1,847	$1.21	1d	131	0.29mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.29mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	23d	1	0.30mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	43d	1	0.30mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	23d	1	0.31mi
1211 Foxglove St New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	1329	$1,525	$1.15	23d	1	0.32mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	1d	1	0.33mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	4d	1	0.35mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	23d	1	0.38mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	0.38mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	14d	1	0.40mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	43d	1	0.40mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	14d	1	0.42mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	16d	1	0.42mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	4d	1	0.42mi
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	10d	1	0.53mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.60mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	4d	1	0.63mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	43d	1	0.69mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	43d	1	0.72mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.74mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	23d	1	0.76mi
2764 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2764 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	0.77mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	17d	1	0.79mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2754 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	43d	1	0.79mi
2744 Farm to Market Road 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	12d	1	0.81mi
1915 Chiffchaff New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,650	$1.36	23d	1	0.82mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	43d	1	0.85mi
2701 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 22 New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.5	1301	$1,429	$1.10	19d	1	0.85mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	16d	1	0.86mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 3-3x New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,611	$1.08	4d	1	0.88mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 4x New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	1776	$1,780	$1.00	4d	1	0.88mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	43d	1	0.89mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	43d	1	0.89mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.90mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	1d	1	0.93mi
2564 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	4d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $200,999
3. 2026-04-10
   price $213,999
4. 2026-04-09
   price $216,999
5. 2026-04-07
   price $222,999
6. 2026-03-18
   price $268,999
7. 2026-03-12
   price $224,999
8. 2026-01-13
   listed $268,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,678 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,585/yr (+$215/mo · 236.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,259
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$1,005
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,847
• Taxable loss: −$1,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$413
• After-tax cash flow: $2,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $200,999 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $216,999 LERA
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $268,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $224,999 LERA
• 2026-01-13 Listed $268,999 LERA

Property tax history

+75.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,093 · +300.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.