40 Wilderness Way · Maple Falls, WA 98244

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 422 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot $180/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2005 29' Keystone fifth wheel (model LA29RL05) with large add-a-room in division 2. Property is partially fenced and adjacent to the edge of the Glen property, so privacy is fantastic at the rear of the property. Short walk on Silver Lake Road into the town of Maple Falls. Trailer has tankless hot water heater so showers can be as long as you want after a day of adventure or relaxing. Flooring has been recently updated. Furniture is also new in 2025. The Glen is zoned recreational for 120 days of use out of the year and has all the amenities you could want, including 2 pools, hot tub, pickleball courts, wooded disc golf course near the Nooksack River, library, laundry mat, 2 clubhouse, 24 h

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Partially fenced
• 2 pools

Tags

• PARTIALLY FENCED
• TANKLESS HOT WATER HEATER
• RECENTLY UPDATED FLOORING
• ZONED RECREATIONAL
• 2 POOLS
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer to verify schools
• Financial info: Selling terms: Cash or Conventional (see remarks)
• HOA & community: The Glen community association; Quarterly HOA fee of $540; HOA covers cable TV, internet, common area and road maintenance, security, snow removal, and trash; Community features include clubhouse, park, playground, athletic court and CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; RV parking
• Security: Security service
• Utilities: Community water; Septic sewer; Propane power/energy; Xfinity cable; Xfinity internet; Power provided by The Glen - PSE
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Main-level entry; Keystone LA29RL05 model; Residential, manufactured on land
• Construction: Metal and wood construction materials; Metal roof; Poured concrete foundation; Manufactured home (single wide)
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Deck; Partially fenced lot; Outbuildings; Cable TV and high-speed internet available; RV parking; Paved access; Level topography; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave, Refrigerator, Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl and carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Microwave, Refrigerator, Stove/Range; Fireplace details available in remarks; Partially fenced; Main-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Propane energy source

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#544 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Baker School District (rural): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #165 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.51%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,868
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 2 Wilderness Way	0.08mi	1/1.0	380 (-10%)	3mo	$112,500	$296	77
112 2 Pioneer Cir	0.10mi	1/1.0	375 (-11%)	2mo	$100,000	$267	74
101 3 Sunset Cir	0.22mi	1/1.0	448 (+6%)	8mo	$25,000	$56	73
132 Jasper Trl	0.15mi	1/1.0	384 (-9%)	8mo	$68,000	$177	72
108 Christmas Tree Dr	0.27mi	1/1.0	396 (-6%)	8mo	$77,000	$194	71
109 Riverside Dr	0.38mi	1/1.0	392 (-7%)	2mo	$50,000	$128	69
92 Riverside Dr	0.34mi	1/1.0	385 (-9%)	3mo	$45,000	$117	67
90 Christmas Tree Cir	0.26mi	1/1.0	370 (-12%)	0mo	$44,000	$119	67
183 Big River Blvd E	0.50mi	1/1.0	399 (-6%)	2mo	$180,000	$451	66
187 Fireside Lodge Cir	0.42mi	1/1.0	396 (-6%)	6mo	$38,500	$97	65
1383 Schinn Canyon Cir	0.30mi	1/1.0	374 (-11%)	3mo	$100,000	$267	64
175 Big River Blvd E	0.50mi	1/1.0	385 (-9%)	1mo	$78,000	$203	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $44,487
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.35×
• Total profit: $104,741
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98244

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $578

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $812	+0% $798	+5% $784	+10% $770
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $735	+0% $798	+5% $861	+10% $924
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $808	base $798	+0.5pp $788	+1.0pp $777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $40,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $7,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2005 Keystone fifth wheel is in good condition with cosmetic updates, offering a comfortable and well-maintained living space. It's located in a recreational area with amenities, making it suitable for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Inspect and replace any worn-out furniture — Fresh, well-maintained furniture can improve the home's aesthetic and functionality, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Inspect and replace any worn-out furniture — Fresh, well-maintained furniture can improve the home's aesthetic and functionality, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Baker School District
• NCES district ID: 5305310
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,695
• Composite: 42.37/100
• National rank: #6931
• State rank: #165 of 291 in WA

Livability — Maple Falls

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #22984

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Falls, WA
• Population (ZIP): 3,080

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.13%
• Current HPI: 420.4673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid