14614 Sanctuary St · Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1959 0.50 ac lot $259/sqft · 17% above area Est $300k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this well maintained 3 bed / 2 bath raised ranch home right off of Hwy KK in Warsaw. Home has 3 car attached garage along with a 30 x 40 detached 3 car garage perfect for all your lake toys! Home sits on a spacious half acre lot on a peaceful dead-end road. Partially finished basement could convert into a 4th non-conforming bedroom if needed. Located close to several public boat ramps!

Key facts

• Raised ranch home
• Half acre lot
• Public boat ramps

Tags

• RAISED RANCH HOME
• DETACHED GARAGE
• HALF ACRE LOT
• PEACEFUL DEAD-END ROAD
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible entrance with ramp and accessible approach

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 6 covered spaces (6 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; 220 volts electrical service
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property type
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built with approximately 960 square feet above grade finished space
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water softener (owned); Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wood stove; Central air; Attic fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: 220-volt service in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (49.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (49.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,972 (49.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.37%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,224
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -17.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $32,740
• Equity at exit: $147,966

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $122,702
• Equity at exit: $261,231

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $863/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $163,096

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $249,000 Active 403-char remark
17. 2002-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,552/yr (+$129/mo · 179.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$863
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$10,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,544
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bent Tree Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $249,000 WCAR
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $863 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.