308 American Elm Dr · Nevada, TX 75189

$253,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · SingleFamily · 289 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot $181/sqft · 14% below area Est $295k · 14% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Super cute single story floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, open floor plan with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Covered patio
• Granite counters

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• COVERED PATIO
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Nevada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#881 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 51% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,950 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,092
• List price: $253,490
• Delta: -14.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 American Elm Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,399 (0%)	2mo	$248,490	$178	95
406 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+0%)	2mo	$251,010	$179	82
511 Magnolia Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+9%)	4mo	$219,900	$144	68
403 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	0mo	$227,990	$182	66
410 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	2mo	$247,990	$198	66
501 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	1mo	$231,940	$185	64
503 Plum Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$142	64
220 Weatherboard Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-10%)	0mo	$217,500	$173	62
403 Pine Hollow Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+4%)	3mo	$235,000	$162	58
114 Sebastian Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-9%)	4mo	$225,000	$177	57
802 Rustic Way	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,577 (+13%)	0mo	$232,500	$147	50
210 E Cook St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-12%)	2mo	$214,897	$174	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-55,561
• Equity at exit: $37,796

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-82,798
• Equity at exit: $21,917

Cash invested: $70,977 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $266,000 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1569
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,802/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $234,490

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-44	+0% $-131	+5% $-219	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-215	+0% $-131	+5% $-48	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-67	base $-131	+0.5pp $-197	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,372
• Closing costs: $7,605
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	59d	1	0.06mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	0d	1	0.23mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	21d	1	0.23mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,799	$1.09	9d	1	0.39mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	64d	1	0.39mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	73d	1	0.42mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	32d	1	0.47mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	93d	1	0.56mi
401 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	38d	1	0.64mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	26d	1	0.69mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	54d	1	0.69mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	4d	1	0.69mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	0.70mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	56d	1	0.70mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	48d	1	0.70mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	42d	1	0.71mi
209 N Greenville St Josephine, TX	3.0	1.5	1196	$1,600	$1.34	38d	1	0.74mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,650	$0.96	1d	1	0.74mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	62d	1	0.79mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,995	$1.08	4d	1	0.80mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	25d	1	0.80mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	93d	1	0.81mi
406 Knapsack Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,856	$0.99	12d	1	0.83mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	0d	1	0.88mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	0.89mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	7d	1	0.89mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	73d	1	0.99mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	93d	1	0.99mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	16d	1	1.00mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	51d	1	1.00mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	93d	1	1.09mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	93d	1	1.11mi
606 Wrangler Dr Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,900	$1.45	4d	1	1.17mi
1404 Old Trail Rd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,995	$1.23	1d	1	1.22mi
408 N Greenville St Nevada, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	0d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $253,490 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $253,490 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $253,490 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $253,490 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $253,490 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $253,490 Active 281 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $253,490 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $253,490 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $253,490 Active 276 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $253,490 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $253,490 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $253,490 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $253,490 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $253,490 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,490 Active 268 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,490 Active 267 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $253,490 Active 266 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $253,490 Active 265 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $253,490 Active 264 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,490 Active 263 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,490 Active 262 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $253,490 Active 261 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $253,490 Active 260 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $253,490 Active 259 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $253,490 Active 257 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $253,490 Active 256 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $253,490 Active 255 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $253,490 Active 254 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $253,490 Active 253 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $253,490 Active 252 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $253,490 Active 251 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    price $253,490 Active 250 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,490 Active 250 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,490 Active 249 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,490 Active 248 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,490 Active 246 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,490 Active 244 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,490 Active 242 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,490 Active 241 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,490 Active 238 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,490 Active 237 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,490 Active 236 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,490 Active 235 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,490 Active 233 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,490 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,490 Active 229 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,490 Active 228 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,490 Active 227 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,490 Active 224 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,490 Active 223 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,199
• − Property taxes: −$3,802
• − Insurance: −$1,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,374
• Taxable loss: −$5,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Waverly Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like fresh paint and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds convenience ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Nevada

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #15880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $250,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $248,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $246,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $246,490 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $245,490 NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $245,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $260,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $260,490 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Listed $299,990 NTREIS