308 American Elm Dr · Nevada, TX 75173

$255,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · SingleFamily · 381 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot $183/sqft · 13% below area Est $295k · 13% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Super cute single story floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, open floor plan with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D.R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Covered patio
• Granite counters

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• COVERED PATIO
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Nevada — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#881 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 621 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,476 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,777
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -13.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 American Elm Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,399 (0%)	5mo	$248,490	$178	92
406 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+0%)	5mo	$251,010	$179	80
410 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	4mo	$247,990	$198	63
403 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	4mo	$227,990	$182	63
1201 Bristlecone Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	2mo	$285,990	$228	62
501 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	4mo	$231,940	$185	62
503 Plum Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+13%)	5mo	$225,000	$142	62
220 Weatherboard Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-10%)	3mo	$217,500	$173	59
1217 Bristlecone Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	2mo	$230,990	$184	57
1302 Breezy Oak Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	1mo	$232,990	$186	57
802 Rustic Way	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,577 (+13%)	3mo	$232,500	$147	47
308 Saw Mill Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,577 (+13%)	2mo	$239,999	$152	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $116,691
• Equity at exit: $230,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $361,665
• Equity at exit: $497,332

Cash invested: $71,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $258,250 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 125 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,298

Max offer price $204,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-269	+0% $-358	+5% $-446	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-431	+0% $-358	+5% $-285	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-293	base $-358	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,998
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	85d	1	0.06mi
313 Plum Dr Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,581	$0.87	7d	1	0.07mi
305 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,410	$0.83	3d	1	0.17mi
410 White WIllow Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,895	$1.01	16d	1	0.18mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	31d	1	0.23mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	49d	1	0.23mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	10d	1	0.23mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	113d	1	0.23mi
400 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,775	$1.07	3d	1	0.36mi
400 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,795	$1.08	23d	1	0.36mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	156d	1	0.39mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,799	$1.09	101d	1	0.39mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	165d	1	0.42mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	124d	1	0.47mi
403 Silver Birch Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1629	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	0.50mi
602 East St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,950	$1.06	65d	1	0.51mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	184d	1	0.56mi
211 Wrought Iron Dr Nevada, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	23d	1	0.56mi
902 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,700	$1.04	9d	1	0.58mi
833 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	9d	1	0.59mi
401 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	10d	1	0.64mi
304 Patina St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	10d	1	0.65mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,050	$1.20	10d	1	0.69mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	145d	1	0.69mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	77d	1	0.69mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	148d	1	0.70mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	140d	1	0.70mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	109d	1	0.70mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	134d	1	0.71mi
209 N Greenville St Josephine, TX	3.0	1.5	1196	$1,600	$1.34	130d	1	0.74mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	83d	1	0.74mi
511 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,100	$1.45	0d	1	0.79mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	153d	1	0.79mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	53d	1	0.80mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	10d	1	0.80mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	184d	1	0.81mi
406 Knapsack Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,856	$0.99	104d	1	0.83mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,895	$1.01	20d	1	0.88mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,300	$1.23	43d	1	0.88mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	99d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $255,990 Active 380 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $255,990 Active 379 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $255,990 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $255,990 Active 377 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $255,990 Active 375 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $255,990 Active 374 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $255,990 Active 373 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $255,990 Active 372 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $255,990 Active 371 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $255,990 Active 370 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $255,990 Active 369 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $255,990 Active 368 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $255,990 Active 367 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 366 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $255,990 Active 365 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $255,990 Active 364 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 363 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $255,990 Active 362 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $255,990 Active 361 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 360 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $255,990 Active 359 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 358 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $255,990 Active 357 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $255,990 Active 356 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 355 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $255,990 Active 354 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $255,990 Active 353 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $255,990 Active 352 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $255,990 Active 351 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $255,990 Active 350 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 349 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $255,990 Active 348 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $255,990 Active 347 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $255,990 Active 346 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 345 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $255,990 Active 344 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $255,490 Active 344 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $255,490 Active 343 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $255,490 Active 342 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $255,490 Active 341 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $255,490 Active 340 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $255,490 Active 339 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $255,490 Active 338 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $255,490 Active 337 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $255,490 Active 336 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $255,490 Active 335 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $255,490 Active 334 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $255,490 Active 333 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $255,490 Active 332 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,339
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$8,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,127
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Waverly Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like fresh paint and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds convenience ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Nevada

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #15880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $250,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $248,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $246,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $246,490 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $245,490 NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $245,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $260,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $260,490 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Listed $299,990 NTREIS