39 Will Kelly Ave · DeFuniak Springs, FL 32433

$143,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1978 5,662 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this newly painted 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home with a New AC and New water heater. Just 1.5 miles from Lake Defuniak in downtown Defuniak Springs off of HWY 90, this cozy cottage is just minutes from HWY 331 and I-10. Outdoor Building

Key facts

• Historic town
• Functional kitchen
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• HISTORIC TOWN
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO I-10
• SHORT DRIVE TO BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in DeFuniak Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Defuniak Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 669 students, 69% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($989 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $92,583
• Equity at exit: $128,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $261,006
• Equity at exit: $277,818

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $312	-5% $272	+0% $231	+5% $191	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $174	+0% $231	+5% $288	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $268	base $231	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 N Davis Ln Apt 133 Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	925	$1,250	$1.35	22d	1	0.06mi
125 N Davis Ln Unit 129 Defuniak Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	15d	1	0.06mi
90 Andrews Ave Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,550	$1.39	15d	1	0.10mi
163 W Chaffin Ave Defuniak Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$1,600	$1.62	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 412-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on market $143,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-26
   status Pending
5. 2025-09-09
   price $125,000
6. 2025-08-05
   status Active
7. 2025-07-19
   price $149,000
8. 2025-07-04
   status Active
9. 2025-03-28
   listed $158,000 Active
10. 2024-12-05
    listed $158,900 Active
11. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus $149,000 Sold 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Don't miss this newly painted 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home with a New AC and New water heater. Just 1.5 miles from Lake Defuniak in downtown Defuniak Springs off of HWY 90, this cozy cottage is just minutes from HWY 331 and I-10. Outdoor Building

12. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus $149,000

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Don't miss this newly painted 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home with a New AC and New water heater. Just 1.5 miles from Lake Defuniak in downtown Defuniak Springs off of HWY 90, this cozy cottage is just minutes from HWY 331 and I-10. Outdoor Building

13. 2023-06-23
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Don't miss this newly painted 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home with a New AC and New water heater. Just 1.5 miles from Lake Defuniak in downtown Defuniak Springs off of HWY 90, this cozy cottage is just minutes from HWY 331 and I-10. Outdoor Building

14. 2023-06-05
    listed $149,000 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Don't miss this newly painted 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home with a New AC and New water heater. Just 1.5 miles from Lake Defuniak in downtown Defuniak Springs off of HWY 90, this cozy cottage is just minutes from HWY 331 and I-10. Outdoor Building

15. 2022-02-02
    historical
16. 2022-02-01
    status Active
17. 2021-12-27
    status Pending
18. 2021-12-27
    historical
19. 2021-10-23
    listed $139,000 Active
20. 2021-10-22
    listed $139,000
21. 1980-12-01
    soldstatus $2,000
22. 1978-07-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$113
• After-tax cash flow: $2,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — DeFuniak Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #14475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: DeFuniak Springs, FL
• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+941.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-09-26 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $125,000 ECAR
• 2025-08-05 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $149,000 ECAR
• 2025-07-04 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-03-28 Listed $158,000 ECAR
• 2024-12-05 Listed $158,900 ECAR
• 2023-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-25 Sold (MLS) $149,000 ECAR
• 2023-06-23 Pending — ECAR
• 2023-06-05 Listed $149,000 ECAR
• 2022-02-02 Delisted — ECAR
• 2022-02-01 Relisted — ECAR
• 2021-12-27 Pending — ECAR
• 2021-12-27 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2021-10-23 Listed $139,000 ECAR
• 2021-10-22 Listed $139,000 NAMLS
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $2,000 Public Records
• 1978-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.