5277 Hwy 49 N #207 · Mariposa, CA 95338

$154,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1986 $196/sqft · 40% below area $154/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice, clean Manufactured Home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with easy floor plan. Master bedroom is good sized with walk-in closet. Recent upgrades include a New Hot Water Heater, New Hunter Douglas blinds and vinyl flooring throughout. Central Air/Heat, 2X6 construction. Easy to maintain front yard with drought tolerant foliage and the backyard is private with enough space to bar-b-q or sit with a good book. Home is situated in a Cul-D-Sac allowing for less traffic. Idle Wheels 55+ Manufactured Home Park in Mariposa is the perfect place to plant your feet, make friends, take walks and enjoy the beautiful mild weather that is so appreciated in this region. Location is just a hop, skip and a jump to town for a hot breakfast or your favorite Frappuccino. Share cost is $28K , but will be going up to $30K the first of January 2026. $168. monthly covers operating fees including trash. The water fee is paid through the County. Propane and Electric fees are separate. To obtain an application or to inquire further please call Mark Gleason (Manager) 209-966-6500

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Private backyard
• Central air/heat

Tags

• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW HUNTER DOUGLAS BLINDS
• VINYL FLOORING
• CENTRAL AIR/HEAT
• DROUGHT TOLERANT FOLIAGE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Mariposa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#267 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, health & safety C-.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,039
• List price: $154,000
• Delta: -59.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5174 Bullion St	0.60mi	2/1.0	741 (-6%)	11mo	$330,000	$445	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,249
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,079
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95338

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,347

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $274	+0% $231	+5% $187	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $166	+0% $231	+5% $295	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $270	base $231	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashelectric

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,000 Active 168 DOM
18. 2025-12-13
    listed $158,000 Active 1076-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1076 chars)

    Nice, clean Manufactured Home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with easy floor plan. Master bedroom is good sized with walk-in closet. Recent upgrades include a New Hot Water Heater, New Hunter Douglas blinds and vinyl flooring throughout. Central Air/Heat, 2X6 construction. Easy to maintain front yard with drought tolerant foliage and the backyard is private with enough space to bar-b-q or sit with a good book. Home is situated in a Cul-D-Sac allowing for less traffic. Idle Wheels 55+ Manufactured Home Park in Mariposa is the perfect place to plant your feet, make friends, take walks and enjoy the beautiful mild weather that is so appreciated in this region. Location is just a hop, skip and a jump to town for a hot breakfast or your favorite Frappuccino. Share cost is $28K , but will be going up to $30K the first of January 2026. $168. monthly covers operating fees including trash. The water fee is paid through the County. Propane and Electric fees are separate. To obtain an application or to inquire further please call Mark Gleason (Manager) 209-966-6500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$711/yr (+$59/mo · 154.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mariposa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #267
• US rank: #8987

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mariposa, CA
• City population: 10,164
• Population (ZIP): 10,164

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.82%
• Current HPI: 140.3045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Listed $158,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $460 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.