39 E Hill Rd · Preston-Potter Hollow, NY 12009

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1850 4.50 ac lot $66/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits to bring new life to this home filled with potential, set on 4.5 private, level acres with a detached 2-car garage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home also has a half bath already started, ready for your finishing touches. The large kitchen features a gas stove and fireplace, ample cabinets, dining area, flowing into a spacious living room and 3-season porch. Designed with flexibility in mind, the home includes in-law quarters with a separate staircase, making it ideal for extended family or guest space. Additional features include first-floor laundry, an attached workshop, and a greenhouse that, with a little love, could be blooming again in no time. Enjoy a p

Key facts

• Attached workshop
• Large kitchen
• Gas stove

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• IN-LAW QUARTERS
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ATTACHED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway and off-street parking (total parking for 10 vehicles); Stone driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electric with circuit breakers; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Facing direction not specified; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Metal and asphalt shingle roof; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Enclosed front porch; Patio/porch; Workshop and garage structure(s); Secluded, private lot with meadow and wooded areas; Level to sloped terrain with road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Two kitchens (one on first floor, one on second floor); Oven; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Concrete
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane fuel; Space heater; Fireplace insert
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Fireplace with gas insert in living room; Unfinished interior-entry basement; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room in a common area; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.1% in Preston-Potter Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middleburgh Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #409 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.97%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $551,705
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -77.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 E Hill Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+6%)	6mo	$475,000	$238	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $114,464
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $300,826
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12009

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,124/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $798	-5% $763	+0% $728	+5% $692	+10% $657
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $643	+0% $728	+5% $812	+10% $897
Rate	-1.0pp $791	-0.5pp $759	base $728	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $124,900 Active 943-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,124
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $7,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $6,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middleburgh Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,677
• Composite: 41.7/100
• National rank: #3412
• State rank: #409 of 590 in NY

Livability — Preston-Potter Hollow

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 842
• Population (ZIP): 8,068

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.85%
• Current HPI: 290.1144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $124,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,124 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.