3127 Apple Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$280,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,237 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1977 0.33 ac lot Est $302k · 7% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely updated home on oversized lot! Pex Piping, New shower, freshly painted, newly installed carpet, vinyl plank flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, the list goes on and on. As you enter you will love the formal living and dining to your left complete with french doors. The family room has a gas fireplace and overlooks the huge backyard. Primary bedroom is downstairs with large walk in closet and en-suite bathroom. New toilets, new shower, new vanity! Three bedrooms upstairs are spacious and have large walk in closets. This home is conveniently located close to the Fort Bend Tollway as well as Missouri City Town Center and Quail Valley Golf Club and City Centre. Shopping, restaurants, and highways are all minutes away. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 12-2

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Soft-close cabinets
• Light-filled kitchen

Tags

• OVERSIZED CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• LIGHT-FILLED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• MASSIVE BREAKFAST ISLAND
• COZY GAS-LOG FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Quail Valley Thunderbird North association; Annual association fee of $175 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-family layout; Built in 1977; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Three additional bedrooms on second floor (two 13x11, one 13x18)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Tub/shower combo; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL); Lawrence E Elkins H S (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B-, #231 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,654 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,107 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,995
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3626 Telford Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+4%)	0mo	$365,000	$157	66
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,030 (-9%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	64
3519 Telford Ln Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,165 (-3%)	2mo	$345,000	$159	62
3815 Lamplighter Cir	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,343 (+5%)	4mo	$300,000	$128	58
3607 Point Clear Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,467 (+10%)	1mo	$369,900	$150	56
4014 S Sandy Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,367 (+6%)	0mo	$299,900	$127	56
2134 Hilton Head Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,420 (+8%)	1mo	$259,777	$107	55
2503 Fall Meadow Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,319 (+4%)	2mo	$279,990	$121	50
2818 Eaglerock Cir	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,146 (-4%)	2mo	$289,000	$135	49
1927 S Bend Cir	0.44mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,985 (-11%)	4mo	$265,000	$134	49
8622 Quail Burg Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,473 (+10%)	4mo	$239,000	$97	42
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-13%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,046
• Equity at exit: $58,724

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,697
• Equity at exit: $54,393

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,585/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,720

Max offer price $248,107

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-101	+0% $-181	+5% $-260	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-279	+0% $-181	+5% $-82	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-109	base $-181	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2010 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2651	$2,695	$1.02	45d	1	0.25mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	0.38mi
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	45d	1	0.60mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.61mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	18d	1	0.63mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	23d	1	0.64mi
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	45d	1	0.64mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.66mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	0.78mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	19d	1	0.80mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	22d	1	0.92mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $280,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,990 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,990 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $314,990 Active
16. 2023-12-29
    soldstatus Sold 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Completely updated home on oversized lot! Pex Piping, New shower, freshly painted, newly installed carpet, vinyl plank flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, the list goes on and on. As you enter you will love the formal living and dining to your left complete with french doors. The family room has a gas fireplace and overlooks the huge backyard. Primary bedroom is downstairs with large walk in closet and en-suite bathroom. New toilets, new shower, new vanity! Three bedrooms upstairs are spacious and have large walk in closets. This home is conveniently located close to the Fort Bend Tollway as well as Missouri City Town Center and Quail Valley Golf Club and City Centre. Shopping, restaurants, and highways are all minutes away. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 12-2

17. 2023-12-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Completely updated home on oversized lot! Pex Piping, New shower, freshly painted, newly installed carpet, vinyl plank flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, the list goes on and on. As you enter you will love the formal living and dining to your left complete with french doors. The family room has a gas fireplace and overlooks the huge backyard. Primary bedroom is downstairs with large walk in closet and en-suite bathroom. New toilets, new shower, new vanity! Three bedrooms upstairs are spacious and have large walk in closets. This home is conveniently located close to the Fort Bend Tollway as well as Missouri City Town Center and Quail Valley Golf Club and City Centre. Shopping, restaurants, and highways are all minutes away. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 12-2

18. 2023-12-11
    status Pending 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Completely updated home on oversized lot! Pex Piping, New shower, freshly painted, newly installed carpet, vinyl plank flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, the list goes on and on. As you enter you will love the formal living and dining to your left complete with french doors. The family room has a gas fireplace and overlooks the huge backyard. Primary bedroom is downstairs with large walk in closet and en-suite bathroom. New toilets, new shower, new vanity! Three bedrooms upstairs are spacious and have large walk in closets. This home is conveniently located close to the Fort Bend Tollway as well as Missouri City Town Center and Quail Valley Golf Club and City Centre. Shopping, restaurants, and highways are all minutes away. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 12-2

19. 2023-12-05
    status Option Pending 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Completely updated home on oversized lot! Pex Piping, New shower, freshly painted, newly installed carpet, vinyl plank flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, the list goes on and on. As you enter you will love the formal living and dining to your left complete with french doors. The family room has a gas fireplace and overlooks the huge backyard. Primary bedroom is downstairs with large walk in closet and en-suite bathroom. New toilets, new shower, new vanity! Three bedrooms upstairs are spacious and have large walk in closets. This home is conveniently located close to the Fort Bend Tollway as well as Missouri City Town Center and Quail Valley Golf Club and City Centre. Shopping, restaurants, and highways are all minutes away. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 12-2

20. 2023-11-30
    listed $284,900 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Completely updated home on oversized lot! Pex Piping, New shower, freshly painted, newly installed carpet, vinyl plank flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, the list goes on and on. As you enter you will love the formal living and dining to your left complete with french doors. The family room has a gas fireplace and overlooks the huge backyard. Primary bedroom is downstairs with large walk in closet and en-suite bathroom. New toilets, new shower, new vanity! Three bedrooms upstairs are spacious and have large walk in closets. This home is conveniently located close to the Fort Bend Tollway as well as Missouri City Town Center and Quail Valley Golf Club and City Centre. Shopping, restaurants, and highways are all minutes away. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 12-2

21. 2023-11-13
    historical
22. 2023-10-11
    listed $284,900 Active
23. 2023-10-10
    historical
24. 2023-09-30
    historical
25. 2023-09-01
    listed $284,500 Active
26. 2023-08-31
    historical
27. 2023-08-01
    price $289,500
28. 2023-07-27
    status Active
29. 2023-07-26
    status Pending
30. 2023-07-18
    status Option Pending
31. 2023-06-21
    price $294,599
32. 2023-05-16
    listed $299,999 Active
33. 2011-05-15
    historical
34. 2011-01-01
    listed $134,900
35. 2010-12-21
    historical
36. 2010-10-05
    listed $139,900
37. 2009-07-30
    historical
38. 2009-05-19
    listed $114,900
39. 2006-07-18
    historical
40. 2006-04-19
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,585 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,585 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$6,585
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+142.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2023-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-12-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-11 Listed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2023-10-10 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listed $284,500 HARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $289,500 HARMLS
• 2023-07-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-21 Price Changed $294,599 HARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2011-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-01-01 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2010-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-05 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2009-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-05-19 Listed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2006-07-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-04-19 Listed $129,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,585 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.