420 Thomas St · Franklin, VA 23851

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1973 7,405 sqft lot $208/sqft · at area comps Est $187k · at est. ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 1-story starter home located in the tranquil heart of Franklin. The home has an updated modern kitchen. Hardwood floors were recently done. Nice back deck for socializing and enjoying the home's outdoor space. Come tour today!

Key facts

• Back deck
• Outdoor space
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• UPDATED MODERN KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BACK DECK
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#461 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin City Public School District (town): math 23% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #127 of 131 in VA (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,415
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 1.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Bracey St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+13%)	4mo	$225,900	$219	58
207 S College Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+10%)	12mo	$192,900	$193	55
419 Bruce St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+10%)	11mo	$152,000	$152	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,524
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,250
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23851

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $326	+0% $272	+5% $218	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $130	-5% $201	+0% $272	+5% $343	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $321	base $272	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Holland Cir Franklin, VA	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	44d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $190,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Great 1-story starter home located in the tranquil heart of Franklin. The home has an updated modern kitchen. Hardwood floors were recently done. Nice back deck for socializing and enjoying the home's outdoor space. Come tour today!

18. 2026-01-08
    listed $200,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Great 1-story starter home located in the tranquil heart of Franklin. The home has an updated modern kitchen. Hardwood floors were recently done. Nice back deck for socializing and enjoying the home's outdoor space. Come tour today!

19. 2026-01-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Great 1-story starter home located in the tranquil heart of Franklin. The home has an updated modern kitchen. Hardwood floors were recently done. Nice back deck for socializing and enjoying the home's outdoor space. Come tour today!

20. 2025-09-18
    price $215,000
21. 2025-07-08
    listed $225,000 Active
22. 2025-07-08
    historical
23. 2025-05-22
    price $235,000
24. 2025-04-03
    price $245,000
25. 2025-03-10
    price $250,000
26. 2025-01-31
    price $255,000
27. 2025-01-09
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 74.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $3,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101410
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $35,138
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6227
• State rank: #127 of 131 in VA

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #19645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Franklin, VA
• Population (ZIP): 13,481

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,817 people
• By 2030: 7,480 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 6,803 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 6,124 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 4,484 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 2,967 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 44% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: 28.1pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+25.6 2016: D+27.1 2012: D+30.7 2008: D+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.51%
• Current HPI: 293.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-26.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $190,000 REINMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $200,000 REINMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $215,000 REINMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $225,000 REINMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $235,000 REINMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $245,000 REINMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $250,000 REINMLS
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $255,000 REINMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $260,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.