27240 N 172nd Ave · Surprise, AZ 85387

$325,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 2019 6,802 sqft lot $172/sqft · 27% below area Est $446k · 27% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Northwest Surprise area. Designed with families in mind, this home features an open-concept layout with spacious living and dining areas ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, modern appliances, and a center island overlooking the great room. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The HOA includes access to a community pool, perfect for family fun. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, dining, and Loop 303. Very Motivated Sellers.

Key facts

• 6,802 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Oasis Elementary School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #434 of 1,109 statewide, top 39%, 572 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1327 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,259 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,251
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -27.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27271 N 171st Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,885 (0%)	0mo	$407,500	$216	89
17048 W Fetlock Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,897 (+1%)	1mo	$428,990	$226	82
17484 W Bajada Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+0%)	1mo	$424,900	$224	80
17375 W Buckhorn Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,039 (+8%)	0mo	$360,000	$177	75
26943 N 169th Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,897 (+1%)	2mo	$424,990	$224	72
17525 W Oberlin Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+6%)	2mo	$388,000	$194	63
17523 W Fetlock Trl	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,032 (+8%)	2mo	$445,000	$219	60
17419 W Oberlin Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,126 (+13%)	2mo	$530,000	$249	54
26770 N 174th Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-14%)	2mo	$425,000	$263	50
17593 W Blue Sky Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-10%)	2mo	$599,000	$354	50
26779 N 167th Ave	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,750 (-7%)	0mo	$419,990	$240	49
17787 W Bajada Rd	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,098 (+11%)	0mo	$450,000	$214	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-73,996
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-104,386
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1327
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,589/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $278,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-169	+0% $-261	+5% $-353	+10% $-445
Rent	-10% $-442	-5% $-352	+0% $-261	+5% $-170	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-178	base $-261	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17343 W Oberlin Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2581	$2,500	$0.97	0d	1	0.38mi
17016 W Cavedale Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1897	$2,350	$1.24	7d	1	0.40mi
17698 W Maya Way Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2115	$1,850	$0.87	5d	1	0.57mi
17704 W Fetlock Trl Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1834	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	0.57mi
17614 W Oberlin Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1888	$1,950	$1.03	7d	1	0.61mi
17777 W Maya Way Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2126	$2,195	$1.03	0d	1	0.63mi
17770 W Red Bird Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1734	$1,900	$1.10	7d	1	0.67mi
16731 W Cavedale Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2116	$2,199	$1.04	45d	1	0.69mi
26122 N 170th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,300	$1.27	7d	1	0.84mi
26134 N Desert Mesa Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2231	$2,495	$1.12	0d	1	0.89mi
26462 N 165th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2437	$2,250	$0.92	45d	1	0.94mi
26239 N 166th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	45d	1	0.97mi
26239 N 166th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	7d	1	0.97mi
25425 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2137	$2,250	$1.05	18d	1	1.15mi
28840 N 168th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,800	$2.08	45d	1	1.19mi
25620 N 167th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2491	$2,400	$0.96	45d	1	1.24mi
25183 N 172nd Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,000	$1.11	7d	1	1.26mi
25847 N 163rd Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2236	$2,066	$0.92	45d	1	1.34mi
25450 N 166th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2137	$2,150	$1.01	23d	1	1.35mi
17174 W Artemisa Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1459	$1,799	$1.23	6d	1	1.37mi
17174 W Artemisa Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1459	$1,799	$1.23	0d	1	1.37mi
25389 N 166th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2137	$2,200	$1.03	45d	1	1.39mi
17161 W Artemisa Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1459	$1,799	$1.23	22d	1	1.39mi
17161 W Artemisa Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1459	$1,799	$1.23	0d	1	1.39mi
16416 W Cottontail Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1996	$1,925	$0.96	7d	1	1.41mi
24795 N 171st Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	26d	1	1.44mi
17114 W Fallen Leaf Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1459	$1,799	$1.23	22d	1	1.45mi
17114 W Fallen Leaf Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1459	$1,799	$1.23	0d	1	1.45mi
17211 W Whispering Wind Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	45d	1	1.49mi
24913 N 170th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2491	$2,300	$0.92	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $325,000 Pending 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricestatusdays on market $325,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $375,000 Pending 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $375,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $375,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $375,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $375,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-05-03
    price $375,000 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Northwest Surprise area. Designed with families in mind, this home features an open-concept layout with spacious living and dining areas ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, modern appliances, and a center island overlooking the great room. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The HOA includes access to a community pool, perfect for family fun. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, dining, and Loop 303. Very Motivated Sellers.

12. 2026-03-09
    price $385,000 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Northwest Surprise area. Designed with families in mind, this home features an open-concept layout with spacious living and dining areas ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, modern appliances, and a center island overlooking the great room. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The HOA includes access to a community pool, perfect for family fun. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, dining, and Loop 303. Very Motivated Sellers.

13. 2026-01-20
    listed $400,000 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Northwest Surprise area. Designed with families in mind, this home features an open-concept layout with spacious living and dining areas ideal for gatherings and everyday living. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, modern appliances, and a center island overlooking the great room. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The HOA includes access to a community pool, perfect for family fun. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, dining, and Loop 303. Very Motivated Sellers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,589 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 35.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,589
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$8,965
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 123.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $400,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+33.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,589 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.