Oak Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$222,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily · 494 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oak is a spectacular home boasting three bedrooms and two bathrooms, the perfect essential layout for most any lifestyle. Upon entering the stunning Oak plan, feast your eyes on the inviting formal dining room - perfect for hosting dinner parties or having your whole family come together for the holidays. Beside your formal dining room rests your convenient walk-in utility room with direct access to your spacious two-car garage. Toward the right wing of the home is your second and third bedrooms accompanied by the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. Travel further throughout the home and you will find the flexible kitchen area that opens up to the family room, so you will never have to miss out on any moment with guests. Your kitchen comes equipped with sleek granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, gorgeous flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and stylish designer light fixtures. Conveniently attached to your family room is access to the backyard and the optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors and embracing the surrounding nature. Retreat to your private master suite, where you will discover singe or optional double sink, a super shower, and a walk-in closet. This well-designed plan is filled with energy-efficient features that keep you and your family's comfort at the forefront. Features like low E3 cube windows, third-party inspected insulation, and high-efficiency lighting all work together. ..

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Walk-in utility room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• FLEXIBLE KITCHEN AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• FLAT-PANEL BIRCH CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $222,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $249,789.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 5.8% in Barrett — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 494 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,963 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 494 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.12%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,789
• List price: $222,990
• Delta: -10.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1527 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,365 (0%)	1mo	$228,875	$168	95
13006 Dianna Lee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	1mo	$218,990	$154	89
12943 Dianna Lee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-3%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	89
13002 Dianna Lee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+3%)	3mo	$252,990	$180	89
13031 Dianna Lee Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+3%)	1mo	$214,490	$152	88
13030 Dianna Lee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	1mo	$216,790	$153	88
12910 Dianna Lee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	2mo	$257,990	$182	88
12939 Dianna Lee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	3mo	$252,990	$178	86
12818 Shaily Faith Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+3%)	0mo	$216,990	$154	78
12815 Shaily Faith Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+3%)	0mo	$226,990	$161	78
12814 Ivy Creek Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+15%)	1mo	$251,690	$161	64
1222 Bonnerjee Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+15%)	3mo	$283,990	$182	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-73,584
• Equity at exit: $37,244

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-113,255
• Equity at exit: $21,597

Cash invested: $69,941 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.1 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $230,990 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 95 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,310
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,747/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,269

Max offer price $180,103

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-309	-5% $-395	+0% $-482	+5% $-568	+10% $-654
Rent	-10% $-613	-5% $-547	+0% $-482	+5% $-416	+10% $-350
Rate	-1.0pp $-356	-0.5pp $-418	base $-482	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,447
• Closing costs: $7,494
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13535 Sralla Rd #51 Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	7d	1	0.50mi
700 Farm to Market Road 1942 Unit 7A Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,310	$1.28	21d	1	0.72mi
12215 Crosby Lynchburg Rd Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,400	$1.28	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $222,990 Active 494 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $222,990 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $222,990 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $222,990 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $222,990 Active 489 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $222,990 Active 486 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $222,990 Active 485 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $222,990 Active 484 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $222,990 Active 483 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $222,990 Active 481 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $222,990 Active 479 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $222,990 Active 478 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $222,990 Active 477 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $222,990 Active 476 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $222,990 Active 475 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $222,990 Active 473 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $222,990 Active 472 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $222,990 Active 471 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $222,990 Active 470 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $222,990 Active 468 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $222,990 Active 467 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $222,990 Active 466 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $222,990 Active 465 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $222,990 Active 464 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $222,990 Active 462 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $222,990 Active 461 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $222,990 Active 460 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $222,990 Active 459 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $222,990 Active 458 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $222,990 Active 457 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $222,990 Active 456 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $222,990 Active 455 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $222,990 Active 454 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $222,990 Active 453 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $222,990 Active 452 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $222,990 Active 449 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $222,990 Active 447 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $222,990 Active 446 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $222,990 Active 443 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $222,990 Active 442 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $222,990 Active 441 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $222,990 Active 440 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $222,990 Active 438 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $222,990 Active 434 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $222,990 Active 433 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $222,990 Active 432 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $222,990 Active 429 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,990 Active 427 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,990 Active 426 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,990 Active 425 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,992
• − Property taxes: −$3,747
• − Insurance: −$2,046
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$7,267
• Taxable loss: −$10,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has the potential to be enhanced with some updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more energy-efficient and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $222,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $216,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $219,990 Zillow