4189 Marion Ave · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31206

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1969 7,405 sqft lot $138/sqft · 200% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home-perfect for first-time buyers, small families, or anyone seeking comfort and convenience. Featuring a functional layout with ample natural light, this home includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and a full bathroom with modern touches. Enjoy the outdoors in the private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood close to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss this opportunity to make it yours! This is definitely a great starter home or a rental investment for passive income.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Updated kitchen
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• QUIET FRIENDLY NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($30k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $115k implies a 839% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,522
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 176.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4394 Worsham Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	807 (-3%)	8mo	$22,000	$27	71
626 Shi Pl	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (0%)	16mo	$105,000	$126	65
4147 Marion Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	936 (+12%)	12mo	$60,463	$65	65
4161 Worsham Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (+11%)	13mo	$18,900	$20	61
1022 Chatham St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-6%)	9mo	$42,000	$54	54
1111 Hartley St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	812 (-2%)	9mo	$21,000	$26	52
534 Lynmore Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+4%)	10mo	$55,000	$64	52
533 Lynmore Cir	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-5%)	15mo	$55,000	$69	44
958 Sylvian Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (+12%)	13mo	$49,000	$53	37
3966 Guyton St	0.65mi	3/2.0	942 (+13%)	14mo	$115,000	$122	32
1033 Sylvian Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	908 (+9%)	22mo	$60,000	$66	30
1130 Sylvian Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	942 (+13%)	21mo	$40,000	$42	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,151
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,039
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31206

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $876

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $179	+0% $146	+5% $114	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $104	+0% $146	+5% $188	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $176	base $146	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
906 Thomas St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$650	$0.81	44d	1	0.47mi
955 Putnam St Unit 1 Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,199	$1.26	44d	1	0.55mi
534 Lynmore Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	864	$925	$1.07	44d	1	0.61mi
1156 Triple Hill Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	980	$875	$0.89	14d	1	0.63mi
1148 N Beddingfield Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1076	$825	$0.77	44d	1	0.74mi
3423 Flamingo Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$895	$0.85	44d	1	0.85mi
1260 Auburn Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,295	$1.50	21d	1	0.86mi
1260 Auburn Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	44d	1	0.86mi
1332 Hillridge Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	14d	1	0.94mi
837 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	966	$750	$0.78	44d	1	1.04mi
1164 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	44d	1	1.17mi
3238 Somerset Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	14d	1	1.22mi
4028 Saint Charles Pl Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	21d	1	1.24mi
3823 Saint Charles Pl Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,150	$1.13	44d	1	1.32mi
3778 Spencer Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	21d	1	1.32mi
3149 Somerset Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	897	$745	$0.83	44d	1	1.35mi
558 Cleveland St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	924	$925	$1.00	44d	1	1.36mi
3837 Spencer Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,300	$1.20	44d	1	1.44mi
1089 Brisbane St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	816	$1,075	$1.32	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $115,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home-perfect for first-time buyers, small families, or anyone seeking comfort and convenience. Featuring a functional layout with ample natural light, this home includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and a full bathroom with modern touches. Enjoy the outdoors in the private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood close to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss this opportunity to make it yours! This is definitely a great starter home or a rental investment for passive income.

18. 2026-02-10
    listed $125,000 New 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home-perfect for first-time buyers, small families, or anyone seeking comfort and convenience. Featuring a functional layout with ample natural light, this home includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and a full bathroom with modern touches. Enjoy the outdoors in the private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood close to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss this opportunity to make it yours! This is definitely a great starter home or a rental investment for passive income.

19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-10-23
    price $125,000
21. 2025-06-03
    price $130,000
22. 2025-05-07
    listed $140,000 New
23. 2004-06-04
    soldstatus $12,250
24. 2004-04-06
    soldstatus $12,177

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 116.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $1,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,310
• Household income: $30,042
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1335.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.17%
• Current HPI: 148.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+844.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $115,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $130,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2004-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $12,250 Public Records
• 2004-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $12,177 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.