158 Super Hill Dr · Keokee, VA 24265

$82,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1945 0.30 ac lot $65/sqft · 16% above area Est $70k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath home, where classic charm meets a highly functional layout. Hardwood floors flow throughout the entire home, leading you from the spacious living room into a formal dining area--the perfect setting for hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet meals . The living space extends into a versatile enclosed back porch, offering a cozy retreat to relax year-round. From here, step out onto the additional deck, perfect for summer BBQs or morning coffee while overlooking your private, fenced-in yard and scenic views of the historic Keokee School. For those seeking extra utility, the full basement provides an ideal space for a workshop or significant storage. The

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Large driveway
• Attached garage

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• PRIVATE FENCED YARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LARGE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family house; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Enclosed porch; Porch deck; Deck; Fenced front yard; Fenced back yard; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Concrete, unfinished walk-out basement; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#580 in VA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St. Charles Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 120 students, 84% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 58% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $82k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,540 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.27%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,494
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: 16.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
188 Glenbrook Mountain Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (+8%)	20mo	$130,000	$95	59
326 Gobblers Knob Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	10mo	$105,000	$81	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $30,900
• Equity at exit: $36,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $80,496
• Equity at exit: $56,822

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24265

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $522/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $643

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $82,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $87,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $87,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $89,900 Active 1086-char remark
17. 2012-09-05
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $522 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$13/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$522
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $2,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Keokee

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #580
• US rank: #27431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keokee, VA
• Population (ZIP): 967

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+82.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $82,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $87,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $89,900 TVRMLS
• 2012-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $522 · +89.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.