Moscoso Plan · Texas City, TX 77510

$308,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily · 470 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Moscoso, one of our newest floorplans, is an alluring single-story home that boasts around 1,830 square feet, and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 469 days

🏗️ New construction. The $308,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,587.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $308k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.04%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,587
• List price: $308,490
• Delta: -1.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-4%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	84
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,063 (+10%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	78
3208 Bolt Rope Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-7%)	1mo	$323,990	$185	76
3026 Banyan Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-2%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	74
14006 Baikal Manor Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,126 (+13%)	1mo	$325,990	$153	71
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-14%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	64
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (+15%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	60
3215 Sea Nettles Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (-8%)	2mo	$309,900	$178	59
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-8%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	54
3318 Salton Sea Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (+15%)	2mo	$409,990	$190	53
14322 Sun Coral Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (-14%)	1mo	$297,900	$184	50
13511 Golden Isle Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (+14%)	2mo	$383,130	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-31,958
• Equity at exit: $46,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,418
• Equity at exit: $27,113

Cash invested: $87,804 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,644
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,704/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,743

Max offer price $313,587

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $404	+0% $295	+5% $187	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $172	+0% $295	+5% $418	+10% $542
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $375	base $295	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,397
• Closing costs: $9,408
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	2d	1	0.26mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	0.84mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	0.99mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,490 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,490 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,490 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,490 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,490 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,490 Active 461 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,490 Active 460 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $308,490 Active 459 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $308,490 Active 456 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,490 Active 455 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,490 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,490 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,490 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $307,990 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    The Moscoso, one of our newest floorplans, is an alluring single-story home that boasts around 1,830 square feet, and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage.

15. 2026-03-05
    price $307,490 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    The Moscoso, one of our newest floorplans, is an alluring single-story home that boasts around 1,830 square feet, and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage.

16. 2025-04-08
    price $306,990 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    The Moscoso, one of our newest floorplans, is an alluring single-story home that boasts around 1,830 square feet, and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage.

17. 2025-03-08
    price $315,990 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    The Moscoso, one of our newest floorplans, is an alluring single-story home that boasts around 1,830 square feet, and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage.

18. 2025-03-06
    listed $315,490 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    The Moscoso, one of our newest floorplans, is an alluring single-story home that boasts around 1,830 square feet, and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,566
• − Property taxes: −$4,704
• − Insurance: −$1,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,992
• − Management: −$2,992
• − Depreciation: −$9,123
• Taxable loss: −$1,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$370
• After-tax cash flow: $3,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and fresh paint to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $307,490 Zillow
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $315,490 Zillow