614 Kyle Dr · Tioga, TX 76271

$395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $227/sqft · at area comps Est $393k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a home that blends comfort, style, and smart design. The flexible front room can be configured as a private study instead of formal dining, giving you the perfect space to work, create, or unwind. Warm evenings are better by the stone-to-mantle fireplace, while the extended covered patio invites year-round outdoor living. The kitchen is truly the heart of this home, featuring upgraded built-in appliances, gleaming quartz countertops, and rich wood-look tile that flows through the main living areas. Need room for toys or tools? The optional 3-car garagedelivers the extra space you’ve been looking for. Every detail has been chosen to offer both beauty and function—this is a home you’ll love coming back to.

Key facts

• Flexible front room
• Quartz countertops
• Rich wood-look tile

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FRONT ROOM
• STONE-TO-MANTLE FIREPLACE
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO
• UPGRADED BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• RICH WOOD-LOOK TILE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,000 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $393,097
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: 0.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 N Lamar St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-0%)	3mo	$400,000	$230	94
1207 Mary Ann Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+1%)	2mo	$349,000	$198	79
304 Bradley St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+3%)	2mo	$390,000	$218	78
603 Mohawk Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-4%)	7mo	$445,000	$266	74
713 Arapaho Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,667 (-4%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	74
616 Kyle Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,994 (+14%)	2mo	$420,000	$211	73
714 Mohawk Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-2%)	8mo	$439,900	$257	69
404 N Florence St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-12%)	0mo	$342,500	$223	68
504 N Texas St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,661 (-5%)	1mo	$525,000	$316	66
1206 Cutler St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+8%)	6mo	$345,000	$183	60
402 E Main St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-12%)	1mo	$299,999	$196	54
1008 N Main St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-8%)	8mo	$349,900	$218	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $109,867
• Equity at exit: $285,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $348,275
• Equity at exit: $554,587

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,487

Max offer price $305,031

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-349	-5% $-485	+0% $-622	+5% $-758	+10% $-895
Rent	-10% $-835	-5% $-728	+0% $-622	+5% $-515	+10% $-408
Rate	-1.0pp $-423	-0.5pp $-521	base $-622	+0.5pp $-724	+1.0pp $-828

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	46d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $395,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $395,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $395,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $395,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $395,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-02-04
    listed $395,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Step into a home that blends comfort, style, and smart design. The flexible front room can be configured as a private study instead of formal dining, giving you the perfect space to work, create, or unwind. Warm evenings are better by the stone-to-mantle fireplace, while the extended covered patio invites year-round outdoor living. The kitchen is truly the heart of this home, featuring upgraded built-in appliances, gleaming quartz countertops, and rich wood-look tile that flows through the main living areas. Need room for toys or tools? The optional 3-car garagedelivers the extra space you’ve been looking for. Every detail has been chosen to offer both beauty and function—this is a home you’ll love coming back to.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,925
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$14,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,504
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• City population: 1,864
• Population (ZIP): 1,864

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $395,000 NTREIS