8905 Carrolwood Dr · Kathleen, FL 33810

$279,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2000 0.55 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BD/ 2BA ON OVER A 1/2 ACRE OF PROPERTY. OWNER WILL CONSIDER FINANCING PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL FOR TERMS.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Renovated kitchen
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED METAL BUILDING
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.55 acre (dimensions about 150 x 160); Living area reported as 1,440 sq ft; total building area reported as 1,792 sq ft; Property zoned RE-2; Unfurnished

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Southwest facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Porch; Storage shed/workshop; Other exterior storage; Chain link fencing; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-508/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $280k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,914 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,596
• Equity at exit: $41,741

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,978
• Equity at exit: $24,205

Cash invested: $78,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,718/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $272,475

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $37	+0% $-42	+5% $-122	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-131	+0% $-42	+5% $46	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $29	base $-42	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,988
• Closing costs: $8,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3923 Ward Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,595	$1.93	11d	1	0.34mi
3616 Tom Bryan Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	24d	1	0.38mi
3382 Winchester Estates Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,999	$1.34	4d	1	0.64mi
8755 Fort Socrum Village Way Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	11d	1	0.91mi
8426 Greystone Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,350	$1.51	24d	1	1.00mi
8179 Woodvine Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,085	$1.43	4d	1	1.05mi
3366 Mahogany Pointe Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,125	$1.36	4d	1	1.06mi
7823 Sugar Pine Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,875	$1.20	4d	1	1.34mi
7943 Indian Heights Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,975	$1.51	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $279,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,718 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,718 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,718
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − Depreciation: −$8,144
• Taxable loss: −$5,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,289
• After-tax cash flow: $782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+250.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $279,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-07 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-28 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,718 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.