3933 Arizona 260 #66 · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$104,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1989 Average condition $149/sqft · 20% below area Est $131k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.2

Listing remarks

1989 Park Model in Lamplighter RV Resort. New roof and instant hot water New exterior paint and windows in Az room. Quiet tree lined community. Laundry in 1/2 bath, furniture and appliances stay with home.

Key facts

• Laundry in 1/2 bath
• New exterior paint
• Instant hot water

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• INSTANT HOT WATER
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW WINDOWS
• QUIET TREE LINED COMMUNITY
• LAUNDRY IN 1/2 BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $104k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.0% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 948 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,440 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.14%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,686
• List price: $104,000
• Delta: -20.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3933 E AZ Highway 260 -- #242	0.00mi	2/1.0	768 (+10%)	3mo	$147,900	$193	79
3933 Lamplighter Rv #125	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	660 (-6%)	4mo	$111,000	$168	77
3933 E Hwy Az-260 #116	0.00mi	2/1.0	596 (-15%)	7mo	$64,000	$107	68
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 114B	0.34mi	2/2.0	720 (+3%)	16mo	$115,000	$160	64
3933 E Hwy 260 -- #211	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	660 (-6%)	19mo	$82,900	$126	63
190 N Cornerstone Way #42	0.42mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	17mo	$105,000	$146	60
3680 W State Hwy 260 Hwy Unit C29	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	685 (-2%)	18mo	$54,500	$80	60
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 121B	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	596 (-15%)	5mo	$149,000	$250	48
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #44	0.34mi	2/1.5	784 (+12%)	19mo	$88,400	$113	48
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 136A	0.53mi	2/2.0	800 (+14%)	2mo	$128,000	$160	47
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 123A	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	616 (-12%)	24mo	$91,000	$148	37
3616 E AZ Highway 260 Dr Unit 123A	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	616 (-12%)	24mo	$91,000	$148	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,254
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $12,567
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $184,500 ($262/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -28.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 948
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$130 /mo · $1,560/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $233	+0% $198	+5% $162	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $152	+0% $198	+5% $243	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $224	base $198	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $104,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $104,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-07-05
   days on market $104,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-07-04
   days on market $104,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $104,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-07-03
   days on market $104,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $104,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $104,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $104,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $104,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $104,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-26
    days on market $104,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-22
    days on market $104,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-21
    days on market $104,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-19
    days on market $104,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $104,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $104,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $104,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    days on market $104,000 Active 3 DOM
20. 2026-06-12
    remarks 205-char remark
21. 2026-06-12
    listed $104,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$1,560
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,500–$10,500 screening

This park model has average condition with cosmetic repairs needed, particularly in the kitchen and bathroom. Painting and updating fixtures would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance
• Moderate Exterior paint — Faded appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior appearance ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Julia Randall Elementary School F AZ #586/1,109 Nat'l #28,175/41,679 Middle Rim Country Middle School F AZ #100/218 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Payson High School F AZ #141/381 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

F Composite livability gradescore 44/100

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 50,229 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B