19418 Hinkley Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$499,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $299/sqft · at area comps Est $517k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prosperity with craftsman front, extended covered lanai and many upgraded finishes, ready June

Key facts

• Upgraded finishes
• Craftsman front
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN FRONT
• EXTENDED COVERED LANAI
• UPGRADED FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-442 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $436k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 1227 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $381,450 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,787
• List price: $499,990
• Delta: -3.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20593 Pebble Glen Dr	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-1%)	2mo	$415,000	$252	61
19536 Hinkley Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-15%)	3mo	$370,000	$261	61
20060 Kingmont Dr	0.84mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-1%)	2mo	$380,000	$230	56
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+0%)	13mo	$445,000	$265	53
19625 Hinkley Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-15%)	12mo	$340,000	$240	47
20273 Hartford Blvd	0.97mi	3/3.0	1,849 (+11%)	1mo	$625,000	$338	42
18560 Ives Dr	0.82mi	3/3.0	1,852 (+11%)	1mo	$674,900	$364	42
20564 Pebble Glen Dr	0.86mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-16%)	0mo	$430,000	$306	35
20549 Pebble Glen Dr	0.83mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-16%)	2mo	$415,000	$295	33
20590 Pebble Glen Dr	0.90mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-16%)	8mo	$437,000	$311	29
20564 Pebble Glen Dr	0.86mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-16%)	12mo	$440,000	$313	25
20506 Pebble Glen Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-16%)	18mo	$415,000	$295	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-120,284
• Equity at exit: $74,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-183,947
• Equity at exit: $43,230

Cash invested: $139,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $496,250 ($286/sqft)
• Median days on market: 32 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 1227
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,500/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $-442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,374

Max offer price $436,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-269	+0% $-442	+5% $-615	+10% $-787
Rent	-10% $-743	-5% $-593	+0% $-442	+5% $-291	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-315	base $-442	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,998
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19529 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,700	$1.80	1d	1	0.21mi
19095 Hanley Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2127	$6,000	$2.82	10d	1	0.27mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	155d	1	0.30mi
19226 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,150	$1.90	133d	1	0.31mi
19226 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	10d	1	0.31mi
19597 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	2d	1	0.31mi
19592 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	55d	1	0.32mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	143d	1	0.32mi
19274 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	6d	1	0.32mi
19274 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	31d	1	0.32mi
20416 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	55d	1	0.34mi
19617 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,995	$1.91	110d	1	0.35mi
19131 Hanley Blvd Unit 1695532P Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2077	$5,197	$2.50	2d	1	0.36mi
18400 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$6,500	$2.95	10d	1	0.42mi
20207 Napa Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2127	$5,200	$2.44	10d	1	0.45mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	164d	1	0.46mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,500	$3.05	38d	1	0.46mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,500	$3.05	6d	1	0.46mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	151d	1	0.47mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	164d	1	0.47mi
20274 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$7,000	$4.22	10d	1	0.48mi
19708 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	110d	1	0.51mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	164d	1	0.51mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	10d	1	0.51mi
19717 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	10d	1	0.53mi
19724 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	0d	1	0.54mi
19728 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	10d	1	0.54mi
21110 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	164d	1	0.57mi
19749 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	11d	1	0.59mi
19749 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	10d	1	0.59mi
19228 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	164d	1	0.61mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	144d	1	0.62mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	164d	1	0.63mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	10d	1	0.70mi
18312 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	4.0	2.0	2244	$3,495	$1.56	38d	1	0.72mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	157d	1	0.75mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	10d	1	0.76mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	164d	1	0.76mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	21d	1	0.77mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	6d	1	0.77mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area: 1670

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, Plan name: Prosperity

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-08-13
   days on market $499,990 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-08-09
   days on market $499,990 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   pricedays on market $499,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   pricedays on market $533,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $524,990 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $524,990 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $524,990 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $524,990 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $524,990 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $524,990 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $524,990 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $524,990 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $524,990 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $514,990 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $514,990 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-07-12
    days on market $514,990 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $514,990 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $514,990 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-07-07
    days on market $514,990 Active 44 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $514,990 Active 43 DOM
21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $514,990 Active 42 DOM
22. 2026-07-02
    days on market $514,990 Active 39 DOM
23. 2026-07-01
    days on market $514,990 Active 38 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    days on market $514,990 Active 37 DOM
25. 2026-06-29
    days on market $514,990 Active 36 DOM
26. 2026-06-28
    days on market $514,990 Active 35 DOM
27. 2026-06-25
    days on market $514,990 Active 31 DOM
28. 2026-06-22
    days on market $514,990 Active 28 DOM
29. 2026-06-17
    days on market $514,990 Active 24 DOM
30. 2026-06-16
    days on market $514,990 Active 23 DOM
31. 2026-06-16
    days on market $514,990 Active 22 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    days on market $514,990 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-06-09
    days on market $514,990 Active 16 DOM
34. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $514,990 Active 14 DOM
35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $518,345 Active 8 DOM
36. 2026-06-01
    days on market $518,345 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,007
• − Property taxes: −$7,500
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,662
• − Management: −$3,662
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$14,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,384
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and ready for a fresh paint job and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look new ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve curb appeal and functionality ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bonita Springs Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Bonita Springs Middle Center For The Arts C+ FL #209/571 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High South Fort Myers High School F FL #489/667 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 871,946 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area: 1670

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, Plan name: Prosperity