1965 Ascot Dr #6 · Moraga, CA 94556

$574,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · Condo public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1966 $500/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Wow!! What a Beauty, completely updated Top floor Moraga unit available, featuring 3 Bedroom and 2 full baths in this cozy 13 unit complex, Modern feel throughout, Spacious living room with wood burning fireplace, Dining room and a fully equipped kitchen. New flooring, new paint, new fixtures, Updated Bathrooms and Primary with En-Suite bath, Convenient in unit laundry too, Great location, downtown Moraga Living, close to it all, Come see today!

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• In unit laundry
• Top floor unit

Tags

• TOP FLOOR UNIT
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• DOWNTOWN MORAGA LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Valley View HOA); Monthly HOA fee of $500; HOA covers water, sewer, trash and exterior maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium (residential); Built in 1966
• Construction: Siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: No yard; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (upper level, main entry)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower over tub in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $393k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.0% in Moraga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#135 in CA, #4,715 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Moraga Elementary (suburban): math 82% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #20 of 1,400 in CA (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $861 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $575k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,678 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-79,390
• Equity at exit: $171,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-74,414
• Equity at exit: $209,344

Cash invested: $160,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94556

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,780/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$825
• Net cashflow: $-1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,257

Max offer price $389,678

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-723	-5% $-886	+0% $-1,049	+5% $-1,212	+10% $-1,374
Rent	-10% $-1,359	-5% $-1,204	+0% $-1,049	+5% $-894	+10% $-738
Rate	-1.0pp $-759	-0.5pp $-903	base $-1,049	+0.5pp $-1,198	+1.0pp $-1,349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,738
• Closing costs: $17,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1977 Ascot Dr #2 Moraga, CA	2.0	2.0	1295	$3,500	$2.70	15d	1	0.05mi
1932 Ascot Dr Moraga, CA	3.0	2.0	1455	$4,500	$3.09	10d	1	0.08mi
1997 Ascot Dr #1 Moraga, CA	3.0	2.5	1629	$4,300	$2.64	0d	1	0.16mi
2038 Ascot Dr Unit D Moraga, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,900	$2.64	4d	1	0.23mi
680 Moraga Rd Moraga, CA	2.0	1.0	944	$2,595	$2.75	0d	1	0.60mi
431 Woodminster Dr Moraga, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$5,450	$3.03	0d	1	0.63mi
124 Coral Dr Orinda, CA	3.0	2.0	1654	$4,000	$2.42	17d	1	0.95mi
757 Tofflemire Dr Lafayette, CA	3.0	2.0	1592	$5,500	$3.45	2d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $574,950 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $574,950 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $574,950 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $574,950 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $574,950 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-04-04
   price $574,950
7. 2026-01-16
   price $598,900
8. 2025-11-12
   listed $619,900 Active
9. 2025-10-27
   historical
10. 2025-10-21
    price
11. 2025-07-03
    listed Active
12. 2025-03-06
    historical
13. 2024-08-07
    price
14. 2024-04-26
    price
15. 2024-03-01
    listed Active
16. 1998-10-14
    soldstatus $182,500
17. 1998-10-14
    soldstatus $182,500
18. 1998-10-14
    soldstatus $182,500
19. 1998-09-19
    historical
20. 1998-09-18
    listed $185,000
21. 1998-09-18
    listed $182,500
22. 1993-03-12
    soldstatus $163,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,780 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,780 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,206
• − Property taxes: −$4,780
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,772
• − Management: −$3,772
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$16,726
• Taxable loss: −$22,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,515
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moraga Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625740
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $127,196
• Composite: 78.96/100
• National rank: #114
• State rank: #20 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Moraga

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #4715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moraga, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 15,998
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,998
• Household income: $215,720
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 369.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Asian 22% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Chinese 8% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Current HPI: 154.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+252.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $574,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $598,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-12 Listed $619,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-03 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-03-06 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-03-01 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 1998-10-14 Sold (MLS) $182,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-10-14 Sold (MLS) $182,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-19 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-18 Listed $182,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-18 Listed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1993-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,780 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.