409 W 4th St · Coleman, TX 76834

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 414 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot $35/sqft · 34% below area Est $45k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! This home has 856 square feet of living space on a spacious lot of 6,250 square feet, this property presents a fantastic opportunity for those with a vision for renovation and customization. With its quaint neighborhood setting and ample outdoor space, this home offers the potential to create your dream residence. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to personalize your own space or an investor seeking a promising project, seize the chance to transform this property into a true gem. Sold AS IS but has lots of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 414 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($831 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 4.5% in Coleman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#454 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Coleman ISD (town): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #439 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Coleman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Coleman County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $26,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.08%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,494
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -34.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 W 4th St	0.07mi	2/1.0	950 (+11%)	10mo	$133,000	$140	70
1004 San Saba St	0.36mi	2/1.0	900 (+5%)	6mo	$55,000	$61	70
1109 S Concho St	0.17mi	2/1.0	728 (-15%)	20mo	$30,000	$41	50
1215 Llano	0.43mi	2/2.0	976 (+14%)	5mo	$149,000	$153	48
501 E 10th St	0.58mi	2/1.0	912 (+6%)	20mo	$62,500	$69	45
408 E 4th St	0.43mi	2/1.0	752 (-12%)	21mo	$49,900	$66	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $37,840
• Equity at exit: $18,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.53×
• Total profit: $88,141
• Equity at exit: $32,394

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76834

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $239

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $476	+0% $468	+5% $460	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $402	-5% $435	+0% $468	+5% $501	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $483	-0.5pp $476	base $468	+0.5pp $460	+1.0pp $452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,900 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 409 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 407 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 406 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 402 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 401 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 400 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 397 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 396 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 395 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 394 DOM
16. 2025-05-02
    listed $29,900 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! This home has 856 square feet of living space on a spacious lot of 6,250 square feet, this property presents a fantastic opportunity for those with a vision for renovation and customization. With its quaint neighborhood setting and ample outdoor space, this home offers the potential to create your dream residence. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to personalize your own space or an investor seeking a promising project, seize the chance to transform this property into a true gem. Sold AS IS but has lots of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

17. 2007-11-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$317/yr (+$26/mo · 137.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$798
• − Management: −$798
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $5,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,308
• After-tax cash flow: $4,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coleman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,765
• Composite: 33.18/100
• National rank: #5540
• State rank: #439 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coleman

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #9173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coleman, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,861

Population outlook (Coleman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,321 people
• By 2030: 6,834 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 5,968 · -18.5%
• By 2050: 5,283 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 4,205 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 3,405 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 8% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Coleman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.0) · D 10.3% · R 89.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.0pp · 2024: -79.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.0 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+76.8 2012: R+73.7 2008: R+64.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 123.8456
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-02 Listed $29,900 HARMLS
• 2007-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · -83.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.