407 W Carnegie St · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 934 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1930 0.47 ac lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $129k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your freshly fixed-up cottage in the heart of historic Winnsboro, TX- about 90 miles east of Dallas, but a whole world away from the hustle. This here is small-town livin’ at its finest, where life slows down and folks still wave from the porch. This cozy 2-bed, 1-bath homestead’s been fully spruced up with new doors, flooring, countertops, and cabinets—clean as a whistle and ready for you to hang your hat. Step inside to a light, open living area that feels easy and breezy, leading right into a country-style kitchen with a pantry and electric range, perfect for cookin’ up a hearty meal after a long day. The layout flows smooth into the dining space and a full-size utility room with plenty of room for all your gear. The primary bedroom is big enough to stretch out in, with solid closet space and a door that leads straight out back—ideal for enjoyin’ a cool Texas evening. The guest room’s roomy too, ready for visitors or whatever suits your fancy. Out back, you’ve got easy access from both the house and the utility room, givin’ you space to breathe and enjoy that peaceful country air. Best part?You’re just a short walk into downtown Winnsboro, where you’ll find friendly faces, local shops, good eatin’, the arts center, farmers market, and all the charm that comes with true small-town livin’! Seller is highly motivated, bring all REASONABLE offers!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 49 days

Tags

• FRESHLY FIXED-UP COTTAGE
• COUNTRY-STYLE KITCHEN
• FULL-SIZE UTILITY ROOM
• SHORT WALK INTO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.03%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,664
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -2.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 W Coke Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0	923 (-1%)	10mo	$134,500	$146	62
209 S Walnut	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,068 (+14%)	1mo	$135,000	$126	49
509 Sherman St	0.64mi	2/1.5	824 (-12%)	1mo	$139,900	$170	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,135
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,851
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,650/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

   Welcome to your freshly fixed-up cottage in the heart of historic Winnsboro, TX- about 90 miles east of Dallas, but a whole world away from the hustle. This here is small-town livin’ at its finest, where life slows down and folks still wave from the porch. This cozy 2-bed, 1-bath homestead’s been fully spruced up with new doors, flooring, countertops, and cabinets—clean as a whistle and ready for you to hang your hat. Step inside to a light, open living area that feels easy and breezy, leading right into a country-style kitchen with a pantry and electric range, perfect for cookin’ up a hearty meal after a long day. The layout flows smooth into the dining space and a full-size utility room with plenty of room for all your gear. The primary bedroom is big enough to stretch out in, with solid closet space and a door that leads straight out back—ideal for enjoyin’ a cool Texas evening. The guest room’s roomy too, ready for visitors or whatever suits your fancy. Out back, you’ve got easy access from both the house and the utility room, givin’ you space to breathe and enjoy that peaceful country air. Best part?You’re just a short walk into downtown Winnsboro, where you’ll find friendly faces, local shops, good eatin’, the arts center, farmers market, and all the charm that comes with true small-town livin’! Seller is highly motivated, bring all REASONABLE offers!

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

   Welcome to your freshly fixed-up cottage in the heart of historic Winnsboro, TX- about 90 miles east of Dallas, but a whole world away from the hustle. This here is small-town livin’ at its finest, where life slows down and folks still wave from the porch. This cozy 2-bed, 1-bath homestead’s been fully spruced up with new doors, flooring, countertops, and cabinets—clean as a whistle and ready for you to hang your hat. Step inside to a light, open living area that feels easy and breezy, leading right into a country-style kitchen with a pantry and electric range, perfect for cookin’ up a hearty meal after a long day. The layout flows smooth into the dining space and a full-size utility room with plenty of room for all your gear. The primary bedroom is big enough to stretch out in, with solid closet space and a door that leads straight out back—ideal for enjoyin’ a cool Texas evening. The guest room’s roomy too, ready for visitors or whatever suits your fancy. Out back, you’ve got easy access from both the house and the utility room, givin’ you space to breathe and enjoy that peaceful country air. Best part? You’re just a short walk into downtown Winnsboro, where you’ll find friendly faces, local shops, good eatin’, the arts center, farmers market, and all the charm that comes with true small-town livin’! Seller is highly motivated, bring all REASONABLE offers!

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $125,000 Active 1459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

   Welcome to your freshly fixed-up cottage in the heart of historic Winnsboro, TX- about 90 miles east of Dallas, but a whole world away from the hustle. This here is small-town livin’ at its finest, where life slows down and folks still wave from the porch. This cozy 2-bed, 1-bath homestead’s been fully spruced up with new doors, flooring, countertops, and cabinets—clean as a whistle and ready for you to hang your hat. Step inside to a light, open living area that feels easy and breezy, leading right into a country-style kitchen with a pantry and electric range, perfect for cookin’ up a hearty meal after a long day. The layout flows smooth into the dining space and a full-size utility room with plenty of room for all your gear. The primary bedroom is big enough to stretch out in, with solid closet space and a door that leads straight out back—ideal for enjoyin’ a cool Texas evening. The guest room’s roomy too, ready for visitors or whatever suits your fancy. Out back, you’ve got easy access from both the house and the utility room, givin’ you space to breathe and enjoy that peaceful country air. Best part?You’re just a short walk into downtown Winnsboro, where you’ll find friendly faces, local shops, good eatin’, the arts center, farmers market, and all the charm that comes with true small-town livin’! Seller is highly motivated, bring all REASONABLE offers!

4. 2026-03-29
   listed $125,000 Active 1459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

   Welcome to your freshly fixed-up cottage in the heart of historic Winnsboro, TX- about 90 miles east of Dallas, but a whole world away from the hustle. This here is small-town livin’ at its finest, where life slows down and folks still wave from the porch. This cozy 2-bed, 1-bath homestead’s been fully spruced up with new doors, flooring, countertops, and cabinets—clean as a whistle and ready for you to hang your hat. Step inside to a light, open living area that feels easy and breezy, leading right into a country-style kitchen with a pantry and electric range, perfect for cookin’ up a hearty meal after a long day. The layout flows smooth into the dining space and a full-size utility room with plenty of room for all your gear. The primary bedroom is big enough to stretch out in, with solid closet space and a door that leads straight out back—ideal for enjoyin’ a cool Texas evening. The guest room’s roomy too, ready for visitors or whatever suits your fancy. Out back, you’ve got easy access from both the house and the utility room, givin’ you space to breathe and enjoy that peaceful country air. Best part? You’re just a short walk into downtown Winnsboro, where you’ll find friendly faces, local shops, good eatin’, the arts center, farmers market, and all the charm that comes with true small-town livin’! Seller is highly motivated, bring all REASONABLE offers!

5. 2026-03-15
   historical
6. 2025-09-22
   listed $134,000 Active
7. 2025-08-26
   historical
8. 2025-07-23
   price $134,000
9. 2025-07-23
   price $134,000
10. 2025-03-04
    listed $138,000 Active
11. 2024-12-12
    historical
12. 2024-08-06
    price $138,000
13. 2024-08-05
    price $138,000
14. 2024-06-14
    listed $140,000 Active
15. 2024-06-14
    listed $140,000 Active
16. 2023-02-28
    historical
17. 2022-08-31
    listed $149,500 Active
18. 2022-03-08
    soldstatus
19. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus
21. 2022-03-02
    status Pending
22. 2022-02-07
    status Pending
23. 2022-01-27
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2022-01-27
    listed $135,000
25. 2022-01-13
    listed $135,000 Active
26. 2021-06-07
    historical
27. 2021-05-20
    listed $94,900 Active
28. 2012-02-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,650 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,650 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,650
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$132
• After-tax cash flow: $2,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnsboro, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+31.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $125,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $134,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $134,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $134,000 GTAR
• 2025-03-04 Listed $138,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $138,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $138,000 GTAR
• 2024-06-14 Listed $140,000 GTAR
• 2024-06-14 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2022-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-01-27 Listed $135,000 GTAR
• 2022-01-13 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2021-06-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-05-20 Listed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2012-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,650 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.