4009 Carlisle Ave · Baltimore, MD 21216

$165,000

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,535 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1925 6,970 sqft lot Est $312k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 4009 Carlisle Avenue! This spacious detached home offers 7 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, providing endless potential for investors, rehabbers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. The property requires a complete renovation and is being sold As-Is. With its generous layout and ample living space, this property presents a rare chance to restore and customize a large single-family home to its full potential. Bring your vision and unlock the possibilities!

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Sold as-is; property requires full renovation (per listing directions); In city limits
• Financial info: Ground rent $120 paid semi-annually; Improvement assessed value $175,900; Land assessed value $60,900; Tax assessed value $224,200

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Foundation: Other
• Exterior features: Detached structure; Vinyl siding; Ground rent payable semi-annually; Ground rent exists

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the first upper level; 2 bedrooms on the second upper level; 1 bedroom on the main level; 1 bedroom on the first lower level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the first upper level; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 3 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Heat pump(s) for cooling; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $703 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,612/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $165k implies a 416% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.26%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,805
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4124 W Forest Park Ave W	0.48mi	7/2.5	2,372 (-6%)	0mo	$264,500	$112	65
3415 Springdale Ave	0.67mi	6/3.5 (-1)	2,737 (+8%)	2mo	$443,500	$162	46
4003 Springdale Ave	0.57mi	6/3.0 (-1)	2,175 (-14%)	2mo	$200,000	$92	43
4300 Springdale Ave	0.74mi	7/2.0	2,729 (+8%)	7mo	$220,000	$81	43
2217 Roslyn Ave	0.56mi	7/3.0	2,857 (+13%)	14mo	$350,000	$123	41
2813 Gwynnview Rd	0.69mi	6/4.0 (-1)	2,784 (+10%)	3mo	$460,000	$165	40
3616 Springdale Ave	0.61mi	7/3.5	2,748 (+8%)	19mo	$470,000	$171	40
2711 Allendale Rd	0.31mi	6/4.0 (-1)	2,831 (+12%)	22mo	$376,000	$133	39
3709 Chesholm Rd	0.60mi	8/5.0 (+1)	2,900 (+14%)	1mo	$245,000	$84	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $26,623
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $118,300
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,118/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $703

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $797	-5% $750	+0% $703	+5% $656	+10% $610
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $600	+0% $703	+5% $806	+10% $910
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $745	base $703	+0.5pp $660	+1.0pp $617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2510 Roslyn Ave Baltimore, MD	6.0	5.0	2663	$4,200	$1.58	44d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 489-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,118 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,118 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$5,118
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $6,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,523
• After-tax cash flow: $6,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+323.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1982-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1981-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $38,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,118 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.